黄金金融功能的研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 03:15

本文关键词： 黄金投资功能储备功能市场发展　出处：《上海社会科学院》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着人类社会发展和国际货币体系的演化,黄金经历了从商品到货币再到商品(黄金非货币化)的曲折变化,黄金的历史地位和作用也发生了相应改变。在黄金充当货币的年代,黄金一度发挥着价值尺度、交换媒介、支付手段、储备货币、世界货币等全能货币的职能；黄金非货币化后,即1971年尼克松总统宣布关闭黄金窗口后,黄金的货币职能仅剩下储备功能一项。同时,由于黄金价格随行就市,黄金和股票、债券等其他金融资产一样成为市场投资热品。但近两年来,随着美国经济的日渐复苏,黄金的投资功能似乎有所减弱。2013年,国际金价在经历12年连年上涨后,首度大跌29%。加之,黄金储备收益率偏低、持有黄金储备机会成本偏高等问题,又引起各国央行对于黄金储备管理和运用的困惑。持有黄金的意义究竟何在?如何评估黄金的金融功能?如何投资黄金?黄金储备的适度规模多大?这些问题都是近40年来国内外黄金研究的重点,但并未形成共识。本文综述了与黄金有关的国内外文献,发现与黄金货币职能相关的研究伴随黄金非货币化进程的推进而逐步减少,而黄金金融属性方面的研究却在黄金非货化后成为研究热点。黄金非货币化后,黄金的金融属性主要表现在投资和储备两个方面。本文梳理了黄金从一般商品到特殊商品的演变历史,分析了黄金在自由兑换、有限兑换和不可兑换条件下金融功能的演变进程。指出黄金非货币化具有一定的必然性,这是黄金货币供给不足与世界经济快速发展之间矛盾运动的结果。同时,黄金非货币化是不充分的,黄金仍在一定程度上保留了储备货币的功能,这一状况反映了美元作为国际货币的内在缺陷和问题。近年来,受美、欧等发达国家量化宽松政策影响,黄金对一国海外资产的投资配置作用不断提升,对新兴市场国家而言,黄金储备功能也有待进一步优化。另外,在商品金融化趋势下,受地缘政治冲突、各类经济金融危机、美元持续贬值等因素的影响,黄金的投资功能也在不断强化。黄金投资功能主要表现在避险、对冲、保值等方面。黄金特殊的投资功能与金价波动的特殊性密切相关。本文运用GJR_GARCH模型和Markov机制转换模型,分别分析了金价波动的不对称性和长周期性。金价波动的不对称性是指在正负冲击的影响下,金价表现出与证券市场相反的波动性,即当宏观经济环境恶化时,金价更趋向于上涨。这凸显了黄金的避险效应。长周期性是指金价波动一旦形成趋势,将维持较长时间。长周期性的分析指出了购买黄金的最佳时期是在金价开始呈现大幅上涨趋势时。金价波动特征的分析,为深入研究黄金的投资和储备功能奠定了价格基础。在投资功能分析方面,本文对黄金的避险、风险对冲以及金融保值功能进行了检验,认为黄金这三方面的投资效应都是客观存在的。在储备功能方面,本文采用比较分析法,剖析了美、欧、日、英、瑞士等发达国家以及金砖四国等新兴市场国家黄金储备总量的变化特征和影响黄金储备的历史及现实原因,综合分析了各国黄金储备的管理及运用模式,并在此基础上建立了我国黄金储备管理的指标体系,测算了最优黄金储备规模。本文认为,短期我国黄金储备的最优规模为2500吨左右,中长期最优规模在5000吨左右。最后,从国情来看,我国黄金市场发展起步较晚,还存在诸多不利于发挥黄金投资和储备功能的障碍。基于此,本文分析了我国黄金市场发展中存在的问题,并从优化黄金金融功能的视角,提出建立我国黄金市场做市商制度、完善我国商业银行账户金、优化我国黄金储备的管理和运用等政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of the human society and the evolution of the international monetary system, gold has experienced from commodities to currencies and commodities (non monetary gold) the twists and turns, the historical status and role of gold also changed. In the age of gold as currency, gold has played a measure of value, medium of exchange, means of payment, reserve the world currency, currency Almighty currency; non monetary gold, in 1971, President Nixon announced the closing of the gold window, the currency function of gold only a reserve function. At the same time, as the price of gold coins, gold and stocks, bonds and other financial assets as investment goods market hot. But in the past two years the United States, with the growing economic recovery, gold investment function seems to have weakened in.2013, the international price of gold in the experience of 12 years after the first drop rise year after year, coupled with 29%., received gold reserves Interest rate is low, the opportunity cost of holding gold reserves high, and caused confusion on the management and use of the central bank holdings of gold gold reserves. What is the meaning? How to evaluate the financial function of gold investment gold? How much? The moderate scale of gold reserves? These problems are the focus of research at home and abroad in gold in 40 years, but has not reached a consensus.
This paper reviews the gold related literature at home and abroad, and found gold currency related functions with non monetary gold process and gradually reduced, and studies the financial attribute of gold in gold after the non goods has become a research hotspot. The non monetary gold, gold's financial property mainly in two in terms of investment and reserves.
This paper reviews the evolution history of gold from the general merchandise to the special commodity, analysis of gold in the free exchange, evolution of financial function and non convertible limited convertibility conditions. It is pointed out that non monetary gold is inevitable, this is the contradiction between the rapid development of lack of gold money supply and world economy. At the same time, non monetary gold is not sufficient, gold is still in a certain extent retained the reserve currency, and this reflects the dollar as the inherent defects and problems of international currency. In recent years, by the United States, Europe and other developed countries the quantitative easing policy, the gold investment allocation function of a country's overseas assets rising of emerging market countries, gold reserves function has to be further optimized. In addition, the goods under the trend of financial and geopolitical conflicts, various economic and financial crisis, the dollar held The influence of continued devaluation and other factors, the investment function of gold is also constantly strengthening.
Gold investment mainly in the hedge, hedging, hedging and other aspects. The particularity of gold special investment function and price fluctuations are closely related. This paper uses the GJR_GARCH model and the Markov mechanism transformation model, respectively analyzes the asymmetry and long periodic fluctuations in the price of gold. Gold price fluctuation asymmetry refers to the effects of positive and negative impact. The price of gold, and show the fluctuation of stock market on the contrary, when the macroeconomic environment worsens, the price tends to rise. This highlights the effects of gold hedging. Long period refers to the gold price fluctuation trend once formed, will maintain a longer period of time. Analysis of long periodic points out the best time to buy gold in the price of gold began to show a rising trend. Analysis of the characteristics of price fluctuations, laid the foundation for further study of the price of gold investment and reserve function. In this paper, the function of investment analysis. Of gold hedging, risk hedging and financial hedging function was tested, that the investment effect of gold in these three aspects is objective existence. In the functional reserve, this paper uses the method of comparative analysis, analysis of the beautiful, day, Europe, Britain, Switzerland and other developed countries and the BRICs and other emerging market countries gold reserves the total variation characteristics and influence of the gold reserves of the historical and realistic reasons, a comprehensive analysis of the national gold reserves management and application model is established based on the index system of gold reserve management in China, estimates the optimal size of the gold reserves. This paper argues that the optimal size of China's short-term gold reserves of 2500 tons. The long-term optimal scale of 5000 tons.
Finally, from the situation, the development of China's gold market started late, there are still many not conducive to gold investment and reserve function obstacle. Based on this, this paper analyses the existing problems in the development of the gold market, gold and from the optimization of financial function perspective, proposed the establishment of the gold market maker system in our country, perfect our country commercial bank accounts, optimize the management and use of gold reserves in China and policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.54

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