我国存款准备金率变动对上市公司股价影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 16:19

本文选题：存款准备金率　切入点：行业　出处：《河南科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的不断发展和金融改革的不断深化，法定存款准备金制度自建立以来，已经逐步发展成为货币当局调节本国的货币供应量、调控信贷规模的一项货币政策工具。在世界范围内，由于一些国家逐渐放弃货币供应量这一货币政策目标，导致法定存款准备金率呈现逐步降低的趋势，然而在我国，货币供应量仍然是货币政策的中介目标之一，加上目前我国利率非市场化的现实状况，使得存款准备金制度在我国的实施具有一定的有效性基础。我国自1984年建立存款准备金制度以来，货币当局对法定存款准备金率共调整了45次，尤其在2010年1月至2011年6月的一年半期间，中央银行曾连续12次上调法定存款准备金率，创下历史新高。存款准备金政策的高频率使用极大地引起了国内外学者的广泛关注，本文试图从不同行业和不同地区两个视角，实证分析我国存款准备金率变动对上市公司的股价有怎样的影响。基于对存款准备金政策有效性的梳理和总结，本文依次介绍了我国存款准备金政策的基本内容和作用机理，分析了政策的优势和局限性，并重点从行业和地区两个视角，通过建立二元回归模型，，实证分析了我国存款准备金率变动对上市公司股价的影响。在不同行业的分析中，从劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型行业中选取共45家样本公司进行OLS回归分析，结果显示资本密集型行业对存款准备金率的波动较为敏感，技术密集型行业从整体上来看受到存款准备金率的影响并不显著，资本化程度不高的劳动密集型行业对存款准备金率的变动不敏感，进而显示出中央银行调控利率水平政策对不同行业的企业影响差异显著。在不同地区的实证分析中，结果显示我国东中西部地区企业对存款准备金率变化的反应存在很大的差别，基本呈东、中、西递减的状况，存款准备金政策对西部地区的作用微弱，对东部地区的影响最强，进而显示出我国存款准备金政策存在效果上的区域差异性。最后在理论和实证分析的基础上给出提高存款准备金政策有效性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of economy and the deepening of financial reform, the system of legal deposit reserve has gradually developed into a monetary authority to regulate the money supply of the country since it was established. A monetary policy tool for regulating the scale of credit. In the world, because some countries gradually give up the monetary policy objective of money supply, leading to the legal reserve ratio showing a trend of gradual decline, however, in China, Money supply is still one of the intermediate objectives of monetary policy, plus the current non-marketization of interest rates in China. Since the establishment of the deposit reserve system in 1984, the monetary authorities have adjusted the legal reserve ratio for a total of 45 times. Especially in the period of one and a half years from January 2010 to June 2011, the central bank raised the legal reserve requirement ratio for 12 consecutive times, reaching a record high. The high frequency use of the deposit reserve policy has aroused the widespread concern of scholars at home and abroad. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the influence of the change of reserve requirement ratio on the stock price of listed companies from the perspectives of different industries and different regions. Based on the analysis and summary of the effectiveness of deposit reserve policy, this paper introduces the basic content and mechanism of deposit reserve policy in turn, analyzes the advantages and limitations of the policy, and focuses on the two perspectives of industry and region. By establishing a dual regression model, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the change of reserve requirement ratio on the stock price of listed companies. A total of 45 sample companies in capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries were selected for OLS regression analysis. The results show that capital-intensive industries are more sensitive to the volatility of reserve requirement ratio. As a whole, technology-intensive industries are not significantly affected by the reserve requirement ratio. Labor-intensive industries with low levels of capitalization are insensitive to changes in the reserve requirement ratio. This shows that the influence of the central bank's interest rate policy on enterprises in different industries is significant. In the empirical analysis of different regions, The results show that there are great differences in the response of enterprises in the east, west and west regions to the change of the reserve requirement ratio, which is basically decreasing in the east, middle and west. The effect of the deposit reserve policy on the western region is weak, and the influence on the eastern region is the strongest. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the effectiveness of deposit reserve policy are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：河南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.51;F276.6

【参考文献】