汇率波动对区域经济增长及通货膨胀影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 21:38

本文选题：区域实际有效汇率　切入点：区域通货膨胀　出处：《统计与决策》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章采用几何加权平均法对省际区域实际有效汇率进行测度,利用AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)估计了汇率波动率,并采用省际面板计量模型对汇率机制改革效应及影响机制进行了实证研究。结果表明:区域经济增长、通货膨胀分别与区域有效汇率、汇率波动率、投资、政府支出存在面板协整关系;汇率升值及汇率波动率对区域经济增长具有显著的抑制作用,该作用具有显著的区域异质性及时点异质性,有利于缩小区域经济增长的差异及经济增长方式的转变;人民币升值对区域通货膨胀具有显著的抑制作用并具有截面异质性,但是波动率的上升则增加了通货膨胀压力且具有时点异质性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the geometric weighted average method is used to measure the actual effective exchange rate in the inter-provincial region, and the exchange rate volatility is estimated by using ARGARCH1). The results show that regional economic growth, inflation and regional effective exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, investment, regional economic growth, regional effective exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, investment, regional economic growth, regional effective exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, investment, regional economic growth, inflation and regional effective exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, investment. There is a panel cointegration relationship between government expenditure, exchange rate appreciation and exchange rate volatility have a significant inhibitory effect on regional economic growth, which has a significant regional heterogeneity in time point heterogeneity. It is beneficial to reduce the difference of regional economic growth and change the mode of economic growth, and the appreciation of RMB can significantly restrain regional inflation and has cross-sectional heterogeneity. But the rise of volatility increases inflationary pressure and has time-point heterogeneity.
【作者单位】：辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(W2012047)
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F127;F822.5

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