中国货币政策对产业的结构性影响及机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 10:26

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：产业　出处：《复旦大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策作为宏观调控的重要手段,不仅对经济总量有着重大影响,其对产业发展及其结构调整亦存在着重要作用。当面对同样的货币政策冲击时,各产业由于在产业属性、生产经营、融资特征等诸多方面存在差异,因而会对货币政策有不同反应,从而会进一步影响到产业发展及结构调整。对货币政策实施效果的考察,不应当仅仅局限于其对经济变量的总体影响,还应当延伸到其对产业发展及结构调整的范畴。随着我国现代货币政策框架体系的不断完善,我国央行运用各种货币政策工具实施货币政策意图的能力也愈发提高,然而货币政策在从总量上调节经济的同时,其对各产业的影响并非是同质的。本文主要研究了我国货币政策对不同产业及其内部行业的产出增长是否存在着结构性影响,并在此基础上进一步探讨了其背后形成机制。通过理论与实证分析,本文发现我国货币政策不仅对三次产业之间而且对产业内部行业均存在着结构性影响。目前,在我国经济总量高速增长的同时,亦存在着经济结构不合理、产业发展不平衡的问题。货币政策不应仅仅局限于传统意义上的总量需求调控,还应逐步延伸到保障产业按合理结构均衡发展的范畴。在提出研究问题的基础上,本文首先梳理了货币政策传导机制的理论发展脉络,并回顾了有关中国货币政策传导方面的文献,在此基础上总结了现有的关于货币政策与产业发展的研究文献。沿着货币政策传导渠道,本文分析了货币政策对产业结构性影响的理论基础,阐述了产业的不同属性与特征会使得货币政策传导至各产业的效果存在差异,从而为全文的实证分析打下理论基础。在实证分析中,本文基于上市公司的微观数据,采用面板数据模型,比较了货币政策对于三次产业及其内部行业产出增长的影响。通过实证分析可知,我国货币政策对第二和第三产业的产出增长有着显著作用,而对第一产业影响不显著,并且货币政策变动对第二产业的影响大于第三产业。因而近年来我国货币供应量的较快增加,推动了第二和第三产业的发展,但在一定程度上更有利于第二产业的发展。与此同时,我国货币政策对第二和第三产业内部行业亦存在着结构性影响,货币政策对第二产业内资本密集型行业影响程度最大,技术密集型行业其次,最后是劳动密集型行业,从整体上看,货币政策对技术密集型行业的影响处于相对有利的中间地位；第三产业内,货币政策则是对生产性服务业的影响大于消费性服务业。为深入理解货币政策对产业的结构性影响,本文将2003年以来的货币政策划分成相对宽松和相对紧缩时期,并对比了这两个时期货币政策对产业发展的影响,本文的实证结果表明,相对紧缩时期的货币政策更加有利于技术密集型和生产性服务业的发展。通过理论和实证分析后,为厘清货币政策是如何对产业形成结构性影响的,本文分别从债务融资规模、债务融资成本以及股权融资规模三个角度研究了其形成机制。在债务融资规模机制中,本文首先考察货币政策是否会引发产业的债务融资规模变动,并进一步考察产业的债务融资规模变动对产业发展的影响。本文的研究表明,货币政策通过债务融资规模对各产业及其内部行业的影响程度是不同的,因而债务融资规模是货币政策对产业的结构性影响机制之一。遵循这样的思路,本文的研究继而发现债务融资成本以及股权融资规模也是形成货币政策对产业的结构性影响的重要原因。最后,全文提出政府在制定货币政策过程中的相关建议,政府需要充分考虑到货币政策对产业的结构性影响,除此之外我国还应当在深化银行业体制和结构改革、积极推动资本市场发展以及推动利率市场化进程等方面制定相应的政策。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy as an important means of macroeconomic regulation and control, not only has a significant impact on the total economy, the industrial development and structural adjustment also has an important role. When faced with the same monetary policy impact, the industry in the industrial property, production and operation, different characteristics of financing and other aspects, which will have different responses to monetary policy, which will further affect the industrial development and structural adjustment. The influences on the implementation effect of monetary policy, should not be confined to its overall impact on economic variables, should also be extended to the development of the industry and the category of structural adjustment. With China's modern monetary policy framework continues to improve my ability the central bank's use of various monetary policy tools to implement monetary policy intentions are increasingly improved, however, monetary policy in the regulation of economy in China at the same time, the industry. Ring is not homogeneous. This paper mainly studies the output growth of China's monetary policy on industry and its internal industry whether there are structural effects, and on this basis to further explore the mechanism behind the formation. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper found that China's monetary policy not only between the three industries and the internal industry there are structural effects. At present, in China's economic growth at the same time, there is also unreasonable economic structure, industrial development is not balanced. The regulation of monetary policy should not be confined to the traditional sense of the total demand, should also be gradually extended to the security industry according to the balanced development of reasonable structure in the category. Based on the research questions, the paper firstly reviews the theoretical development of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and a review of the relevant aspects of the monetary policy conduction China paper Xian, on the basis of summarizing the existing about monetary policy and industry development research. Along the transmission channel of monetary policy, this paper analyzes the theoretical basis of the industrial structure effect of monetary policy, elaborates the different attributes and characteristics of the industry will make monetary policy conduction to the industry differences, so as to lay a theory foundation for the empirical analysis. In the empirical analysis, the micro data of listed companies based on the panel data model to compare the monetary policy for the three industry and its internal industry output growth impact. The empirical analysis shows that, there are significant effects of output growth of China's monetary policy on the second and the third industry. While no significant effect on the primary industry, and the influence of changes in monetary policy to the second industry more than third industries. In recent years, China's money supply increased faster Second and third, to promote the development of industry, but more conducive to the development of the second industry to a certain extent. At the same time, China's monetary policy on the second and third industries internal also exist structural effects of monetary policy on the second industry in the capital intensive industry influence, technology intensive industry is the second, at last labor intensive industries, on the whole, the impact of monetary policy on technology intensive industries in the middle position relatively favorable; third in the industry, is the impact of monetary policy on producer services than consumer services. For the structural impact of monetary policy on the in-depth understanding of the industry, since 2003 monetary policy is divided into relatively loose and relatively tight monetary policy in this period, and the influence of the two stages of the industrial development of the contrast, the empirical results show that the phase of austerity The monetary policy is more conducive to the development of technology intensive and productive service industry. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, to clarify how the monetary policy form the structural impact on the industry, this paper from the three aspects of debt financing scale, the cost of debt financing and equity financing scale to study the formation mechanism in financing. The scale mechanism of debt, this paper examines whether monetary policy will cause the industry's debt financing scale changes, and further study the industry debt financing scale changes impact on the development of the industry. This study shows that monetary policy through debt financing scale impact on the industry and its internal industry is different, so the debt financing scale is one of the industry's structural impact mechanism of monetary policy. According to this idea, this paper studies and found the cost of debt financing and equity An important reason is the formation of the scale of financing structural monetary policy impact on the industry. Finally, the paper puts forward related suggestions of government in the process of formulating monetary policy, the government needs to give full consideration to the structural effects of monetary policy on the industry, in addition our country should also be in the banking system and deepen structural reform, actively promote the capital market the development and promote the interest rate marketization process to develop appropriate policies.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F121.3

【参考文献】