人民币境外流通的规模测算与原因研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 13:09

本文选题：人民币　切入点：境外流通　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济体制改革的深入和对外开放的推进，中国经济持续快速增长、经济实力不断增强，币值相对稳定的人民币越来越广泛地被境外所接受，尤其是在港澳台地区和周边国家的边境贸易中，，人民币境外流通的规模在不断扩大，这意味着人民币开始进入国际化的初始阶段。合理测算人民币境外流通规模，分析和研究人民币境外流通的原因，并提出相关的对策，对于推动人民币国际化进程具有重要的意义。本文通过借鉴国内外关于人民币境外流通规模的测算方法和理论研究，分析了人民币境外流通的现状，并采用间接法测算了2006-2012年人民币境外流通规模，根据人民币境外流通规模实证分析了人民币境外流通的原因。人民币境外流通规模可以分三阶段：（1）2006年到2008年呈现稳步上升趋势，2008年达到顶峰；（2）2009年到2010年第二季度出现下降趋势，2009年达到最低谷；（3）2010第二季度之后开始加速飙升，并且超越2008年的顶峰。通过人民币境外流通原因的实证分析得出：贸易总额、币值稳定、经济增长是人民币境外流通的主要原因。本文最后提出了应对人民币境外流通的政策建议，主要对策分为宏观对策和微观对策，宏观对策包括：（1）推动人民币参与国际结算；（2）提高经济实力，保持人民币汇率稳中有升；（3）加速实现人民币可自由兑换；（4）加快建设香港人民币离岸金融中心；（5）完善人民币境外流通监测体系。微观政策为加强双边银行合作和改善金融服务以及创新人民币结算产品。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic reform and opening up to promote Chinese sustained and rapid economic growth, economic strength, the relative stability of the RMB currency is widely accepted by overseas, especially in border trade in Hong Kong and Macao regions and neighboring countries, the RMB foreign circulation is expanding, which means the initial stage of the RMB began to enter the internationalization. Reasonable estimates the scale of RMB circulation abroad, cause analysis and research of RMB circulation abroad, and puts forward relevant countermeasures, is of great significance to promote the RMB internationalization process.
By drawing on domestic and foreign about the scale of RMB circulation abroad calculation method and theory research, analyzes the current situation of RMB circulation abroad, and using the indirect method to measure the scale of RMB circulation abroad for 2006-2012 years, according to the scale of RMB circulation abroad empirical analysis of the causes of RMB circulation abroad.
The scale of RMB circulation abroad can be divided into three stages: (1) from 2006 to 2008 showed a steady upward trend, reaching a peak in 2008; (2) in 2009 to the second quarter of 2010 show a downward trend in 2009 reached the lowest; 2010 (3) after the beginning of the second quarter to accelerate soared, and beyond the peak in 2008. Through the empirical reasons for RMB circulation abroad the analysis shows that the total volume of trade, currency stability, economic growth is the main reason for RMB circulation abroad.
The paper finally puts forward policy suggestions to deal with RMB circulation abroad, the main measures are divided into macro strategies and micro countermeasures, countermeasures include: (1) to promote the RMB to participate in international settlement; (2) improve the economic strength and keep RMB exchange rate stable; (3) accelerate the convertibility of the Renminbi; (4) to accelerate the construction of offshore financial center of Hongkong; (5) improve the circulation monitoring system of offshore renminbi. Micro policies to strengthen bilateral cooperation and improve banking financial services and innovation of RMB settlement products.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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