宏观经济先行指标对我国股票市场影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-08 22:03

本文选题：宏观经济先行指标　切入点：股票市场　出处：《兰州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：股票市场作为金融业的重要组成部分,是市场经济的高级组织形态,也是生产力发展的必然产物。近年来,对经济增长与股票市场发展之间的关系研究、宏观经济因素和股票市场之间关系的研究,以及更进一步对宏观经济先行指标和股票市场价格走势之间关系的研究,已经越来越多的得到各国研究者的关注。我国的股票市场发展开始时间较晚,发展程度较低,经常出现背离经济形势的暴涨暴跌现象,股市作为国民经济晴雨表的作用尚不能发挥出来,对我国股票市场价格走势和宏观经济先行指标之间关系的研究有益于各方投资主体。基于此,本文从理论上论述宏观经济先行指标对股票市场价格走势的影响。并应用相关检验方法对宏观经济先行指标与我国股票市场价格走势之间的关系进行实证检验。根据本文的研究结果可知：从短期和长期来看我国的股票市场市场价格走势与宏观经济先行指标之间都是均衡的,每个指标对股票市场价格走势的影响程度有所不同。最后,根据实证检验结果,本文提出了一些政策建议,以期能够对我国股票市场的发展和完善提供一些有意的参考。
[Abstract]:As an important part of financial industry, stock market is the advanced organizational form of market economy and the inevitable outcome of the development of productive forces. In recent years, the research on the relationship between economic growth and stock market development, the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market, and further research on the relationship between macroeconomic leading indicators and stock market price trends, More and more researchers from all over the world have paid attention to it. The stock market of our country began to develop relatively late, the development degree is low, the phenomenon of rising and plummeting away from the economic situation often appears, the function of stock market as the barometer of national economy can not be brought into play yet. The research on the relationship between the stock market price trend and the macro-economic index is beneficial to the investors. Based on this, This paper theoretically discusses the influence of the macro-economic antecedent index on the stock market price trend, and makes an empirical test on the relationship between the macro-economic antecedent index and the stock market price trend of our country by using the relevant test method. According to the research results of this paper: in the short and long term, the price trend of stock market in China and the leading macroeconomic indicators are both balanced. The influence of each index on the stock market price trend is different. Finally, according to the empirical test results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions in order to provide some interesting reference for the development and improvement of our stock market.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】