我国短期资本流动管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 10:56

本文选题：短期资本流动　切入点：经济冲击　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和资本流动自由化的发展,短期资本在全球市场上尤其是在新兴经济体市场上大规模流动,从1994年墨西哥金融危机到1997年东南亚金融危机,从1998年俄罗斯金融危机到2000年阿根廷金融危机,无一不伴随着热钱在全球范围的频繁流动。每一次金融危机无不伴随国际短期资本的频繁流动,国际短期资本流动的原因是什么?我们应该如何应对短期资本流动的冲击?我国经济又能在多大程度上承受短期资本流动的负面影响?这些部是值得我们关注的问题。本文的研究既具有理论意义又具有现实意义。通过探究我国短期资本流动的影响因素,更有针对性地采取监管或引导措施,合理导向国际短期资本,以便减少其对我国经济和金融环境的冲击。本文主要研究影响短期资本流动原因,并分析短期资本流动对我国宏观经济、资本市场及商业银行的不利影响,进而提出相关建议。本文研究发现影响短期资本流动的因素主要有套利因素、套汇因素、套价因素、套税因素,其中套利、套汇是国际短期资本流动的主要原因而且中美利差、人民币升值预期、资产溢价、中美税差在短期内变化对国际短期资本流动影响较大,充分表现出短期资本的逐利性。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and capital flow liberalization, short-term capital flows on a large scale in global markets, especially in emerging economies, from the Mexican financial crisis in 1994 to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997. From the Russian financial crisis in 1998 to the Argentine financial crisis in 2000, all of them were accompanied by the frequent flow of hot money around the world. Every financial crisis was accompanied by the frequent flow of international short-term capital. What are the reasons for short-term international capital flows? How should we cope with the impact of short-term capital flows? To what extent can our economy bear the negative impact of short-term capital flows? These departments are worthy of our attention. The research in this paper is of both theoretical and practical significance. By exploring the influencing factors of short-term capital flows in China, we should take more targeted supervision or guidance measures. In order to reduce its impact on China's economic and financial environment, this paper mainly studies the reasons that affect short-term capital flows, and analyzes the impact of short-term capital flows on China's macro economy. The paper finds that the factors influencing short-term capital flow are arbitrage factor, arbitrage factor, arbitrage factor, arbitrage factor, arbitrage factor, etc. Arbitrage is the main reason of international short-term capital flow and the interest rate difference between China and the United States. The expectation of RMB appreciation asset premium and tax difference between China and the United States in the short term have a great impact on the international short-term capital flow.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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