基于利率渠道和信贷渠道的货币政策区域效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 22:15

本文选题：区域效应　切入点：货币政策　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策对于国家经济的协调有序发展起着关键性的作用,而区域经济水平各方面的差异会导致统一的货币政策在各地区中产生差异化的效果,即货币政策的区域效应。在关于货币政策的研究中,区域效应是一个非常值得关注和具有现实意义的课题,特别是针对我国目前区域经济水平发展失衡的情况,研究清楚区域效应及其产生机制对货币政策的制定及地区经济的健康发展均有指导性的作用。本文试图从存在性和产生原因两方面入手对我国的货币政策区域效应进行研究。本文将我国31个省、自治区及直辖市分为东中西三个地区,利用协整关系和格兰杰因果检验方法等检验变量序列关系,并建立结构向量自回归模型,求解脉冲响应函数,分别检验地区经济代表变量对于货币政策一个单位冲击的动态响应,证明了我国存在着显著的区域效应,经济发达的地区具有更高的货币政策响应程度,并针对西部地区得到了和较早文献相比具有差异性的结论。本文进一步利用分时期样本的检验,得出我国的区域效应随时间产生变化,在前西部大开发时期和西部大开发后时期,西部地区的区域效应呈现出不同的货币政策敏感度,较好的解释了前文得到的结果。基于利率渠道和信贷渠道,本文试图对货币政策区域效应的产生原因进行解释。研究结果显示,利率渠道和信贷渠道均具有一定的解释力。利率渠道中,第一二三产业对于利率的敏感度差异明显,而地区间产业结构具有显著差异进而导致了区域效应。本文使用信贷水平作为信贷渠道的代理变量,东中西部地区的信贷水平对于货币政策正向冲击的响应差异证明了信贷渠道的存在。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy plays a key role in the coordinated and orderly development of national economy, and the differences in regional economic level will lead to the difference of monetary policy in different regions. That is, the regional effect of monetary policy. In the study of monetary policy, regional effect is a topic of great concern and practical significance, especially in view of the unbalanced development of regional economic level in China. The study of regional effect and its production mechanism has a guiding effect on the formulation of monetary policy and the healthy development of regional economy. This paper attempts to study the regional effect of monetary policy in China from two aspects: existence and cause. Should be studied. In this paper, 31 provinces in China, The autonomous region and the municipalities directly under the Central Government are divided into three regions: East, West and West. By using cointegration and Granger causality test, a structural vector autoregressive model is established to solve the impulse response function. The dynamic response of regional economic representative variables to a unit impact of monetary policy is tested respectively, which proves that there is a significant regional effect in China, and the developed region has a higher degree of monetary policy response. In view of the conclusion that the western region is different from the earlier literature, this paper makes further use of the test of time-divided samples to find out that the regional effect of our country changes with time. In the period before and after the development of the western region, the regional effects of the western region showed different monetary policy sensitivities, which explained the results obtained earlier, based on the interest rate channel and the credit channel. This paper attempts to explain the causes of the regional effects of monetary policy. The results show that both the interest rate channel and the credit channel have a certain explanatory power. In the interest rate channel, the sensitivity of the 123 industry to interest rate is obviously different. In this paper, the credit level is used as the proxy variable of the credit channel. The difference in the response of credit level to the positive impact of monetary policy in the east, west and west regions proves the existence of credit channels.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0

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