货币政策与房价波动:调控理论与实践依据——基于STATE-SPACE模型的实证检验

发布时间：2018-03-19 20:17

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：房价波动　出处：《天府新论》2012年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：房价波动对我国货币政策最终目标的两个方面——人民币对内稳定与对外稳定——都产生了重要影响,且影响弹性都比较稳定,房价过快上涨对人民币币值稳定造成了较大的压力。房改以来,房价对CPI有较强的正向影响力,在亚洲金融危机中起到了对抗通缩、拉动内需带动经济持续发展的重要作用。但是在近年来经济繁荣时期,由于这种正向影响力较强,房价过快上涨推动了CPI快速上扬而诱发了超温和的通货膨胀,干扰了我国货币政策最终目标的实现。汇改以后,房价对人民币汇率有较强的正向影响力。这一影响的形成主要是由于热钱为获取人民币升值和房价上涨的双重收益,从而对我国人民币币值稳定构成很大的压力,也在很大程度上干扰了我国正常的货币政策。
[Abstract]:The fluctuation of house prices has had an important impact on both internal and external stability of China's monetary policy in two aspects of its ultimate goal, and the impact on elasticity has been relatively stable. The rapid rise in house prices has put greater pressure on the stability of the renminbi. Since the housing reform, house prices have had a strong positive impact on CPI and have played a role in fighting deflation during the Asian financial crisis. The important role of stimulating domestic demand to promote sustained economic development. But in recent years, during the boom period, because of this positive influence, the rapid rise in house prices pushed the CPI to a rapid rise, which led to ultra-mild inflation. It interferes with the realization of the ultimate goal of China's monetary policy. After the exchange rate reform, house prices have a strong positive influence on the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, it exerts great pressure on the stability of RMB value and interferes with our normal monetary policy to a great extent.
【作者单位】：浙江农林大学经济与管理系;上海财经大学投资系;上海财经大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71103121) 浙江省教育厅基金资助项目(编号:Y201121210) 上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目(编号:CXJJ-2011-309) 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(编号:2011EJL002)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F822.0;F293.3;F224

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