人民币汇率变动对国内物价的影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-23 08:51

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：国内物价　出处：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在开放经济条件下,汇率作为一个国家的货币相对于另一个国家货币的价格,在国与国之间的经济交往越来越频繁的今天,汇率对各国经济的都有着非常重要的影响。而物价稳定作为我国宏观调控的四大目标之一,与居民的日常生活息息相关,也一直受到货币政策的制定者和广大居民的广泛关注 2005年7月21日,为了让人民币汇率更加贴近市场,更好地发挥其作用,我国对人民币汇率制度进行了改革,自此以后,人民币汇率开始逐步升值。从2005年7月至2013年10月,国际清算银行公布的人民币实际有效汇率和人民币名义有效汇率分别累计升值了36.61%和27%。传统的经济学理论认为,一国货币升值应该能够增加进口减少出口,从而有效地减少贸易顺差,减少以外汇占款形式而存在的那部分货币供应量,进而降低国内通货膨胀压力。但是,我国的实际情况却并非如此。伴随着人民币汇率的快速升值,我国净出口不断扩大,贸易顺差不断增加,由此带来的外汇储备规模不断增大。而且,与此同时,国内物价也经历了几轮的持续上升过程,通货膨胀压力不断加大。理论和现实的差异要求重新考虑汇率变动与物价之间的关系。基于我国与传统理论不符的现象,本文在传统汇率与物价关系理论及一些新的汇率传递的理论基础之上,对人民币汇率变动对国内物价的影响进行了实证分析,对人民币汇率变动对国内三类价格的影响进行了分析。本文的结构主要包括六个章节。第一章为绪论,主要介绍本文的选题背景与意义以及文章结构,并对现有的国内外一些有关汇率价格传递效应的理论与实证研究成果进行简要介绍,最后指出本文创新点与不足之处。第二章简要介绍了汇率变动与物价之间关系的一些理论,主要包括传统的购买力平价假说、巴拉萨-萨缪尔森理论以及认为在一定条件下本国货币的升值将会引发通货紧缩的麦金农理论和一些新汇率传递理论,对汇率变动与物价之间的关系做一个理论上的阐述。第三章在前面相关理论的基础上对人民币汇率变动对国内物价的影响路径进行了分析。本文将汇率变动影响国内物价的路径分为进口商品价格路径、宏观经济变量路径和资产价格路径,对每个影响路径影响国内物价的原理进行了阐述。第四章主要是现实情况的介绍,回顾了我国“汇改”以来人民币汇率和国内物价的变化历程,从直观上分析人民币汇率与国内物价的关系。第五章是实证部分,本文采用VAR模型对汇率变动对国内物价的影响进行实证分析。在单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和Johansen协整检验的基础之上建立一个VAR模型,对汇率变动通过三个不同路径对国内物价水平的影响进行综合分析,并分析人民币汇率变动对国内三类不同物价水平的不同影响。第六章则对全文做一个总结并相应地提出些政策建议。实证结果表明：首先,总体来看,短期内人民币升值能在一定程度上抑制国内进口商品价格、工业品出厂价格和消费价格的上涨。这表明人民币汇率的升值能在一定程度上缓解国内的通货膨胀压力。但是,控制货币供应量的增长速度和控制资产价格等对治理通货膨胀比人民币升值更有效。其次,人民币汇率的变动对进口商品价格、工业品出厂价格和消费价格的影响是依次递减的。所以从长期来看,人民币升值并不能有效地抑制国内价格的上涨,反而可能通过推高资产价格而造成通货膨胀的压力加大。基于以上的实证研究结果,本文针对性地提出了一些政策建议：第一,人民币升值在短期内可以作为治理通货膨胀的政策工具,但是,我们应该从多方面着手来治理通货膨胀,综合运用货币政策、财政政策与汇率政策等措施；第二,要改变发展战略,扩大内需,转变经济增长方式；第三,要完善人民币汇率的形成机制,扩大人民币汇率的弹性和灵活性,提高人民币汇率的市场化程度；加强对人民币汇率预期的管理；人民币汇率在短期内必须保持基本稳定,升值应当遵循小幅、渐进的原则。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of open economy, the exchange rate as the currency of one country relative to another country's currency price, in between the nations and economic exchanges have become more frequent today, the exchange rate of the national economy has a very important influence. And the price stability as one of the four major objectives of China's macroeconomic regulation and control. Closely related to the daily life of residents, but also has been widely concerned by policy makers and the majority of residents
In July 21, 2005, in order to make RMB exchange rate closer to the market, to better play its role after China reformed the RMB exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate began to rise gradually since then. From July 2005 to October 2013, published by the bank for International Settlements of RMB real effective exchange rate and the RMB nominal effective exchange rate respectively has risen 36.61% and that of economic theory the traditional 27%., a currency appreciation should be able to increase imports to reduce exports, so as to effectively reduce the trade surplus, reduce part of the money supply to foreign exchange exists, thereby reducing the pressure on domestic inflation. However, the actual situation in our country is not the case. With the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, China's net exports continue to expand, increasing trade surplus, the scale of foreign exchange reserve increased. And at the same time. Also, domestic prices experienced a sustained rise of several rounds, increasing inflationary pressures. Between theory and reality to consider the relationship between exchange rate and price. China and the traditional theory with the phenomenon based on the theory basis of the traditional relationship between exchange rate and price theory and some new exchange rate pass. The impact of RMB exchange rate on the domestic price of an empirical analysis, the impact of RMB exchange rate changes to the domestic price of three types were analyzed.
The structure of this paper consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background and significance and the structure, and the existing domestic and foreign exchange rate pass through some relevant theoretical and empirical research on the effect of the results are briefly introduced, finally pointed out the innovation points and deficiencies. The second chapter briefly introduces some theory the relationship between the exchange rate and price, including the traditional PPP hypothesis, Pakistan Lhasa Samuelson theory and Mackinnon's theory that deflation and some of the new exchange rate transfer theory in the domestic currency appreciation will be under certain conditions, a theoretical exposition of the relationship between exchange rate and price. The third chapter in the front of theory on the impact of RMB exchange rate on the domestic price path is analyzed. The influence of exchange rate in China In the path of the price the price of imported goods is divided into macro economic variables and path path, the path of asset prices, the domestic price of each principle influence path effects are described. The fourth chapter mainly introduces the reality of the situation, the review of the "reform" since the RMB exchange rate and domestic prices change process, analysis of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate with the domestic price intuitively. The fifth chapter is the empirical part, this paper uses VAR model to analyze the influence of exchange rate on the domestic price. In the unit root test, Grainger causality test and Johansen co integration test based on the establishment of a VAR model of exchange rate changes were analyzed through three different paths the impact on the domestic price level, and the analysis of the RMB exchange rate movements on China
The three different kinds of different price levels are different. The sixth chapter makes a summary of the full text and puts forward some policy suggestions accordingly.
The empirical results show that: first, overall, short-term RMB appreciation can restrain domestic prices of imported goods to a certain extent, prices and consumer prices of industrial products. This shows that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate to ease domestic inflation pressure to a certain extent. However, more effective control of the money supply growth rate and control of asset prices on inflation than RMB appreciation. Secondly, the price of RMB exchange rate on imports, industrial producer prices and consumer prices is decreasing. So in the long term, the RMB appreciation can not effectively curb domestic prices, but may be caused by inflation by pushing up asset prices the pressure is increased.
Based on the above empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions: first, the appreciation of the renminbi in the short term can control inflation as a policy tool, however, we should start from the aspects of to control inflation, the integrated use of monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy measures; second, to change the development strategy. The expansion of domestic demand, change the mode of economic growth; third, to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the expansion of the RMB exchange rate flexibility, improve the degree of marketization of RMB exchange rate; RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen the management; the RMB exchange rate must remain stable in the short term, the appreciation should follow the principle of small, incremental.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F726;F832.6

【参考文献】