金融趋同的理论与实证

发布时间：2018-04-03 05:35

本文选题：经济空间　切入点：金融趋同　出处：《经济问题》2015年08期

【摘要】：传统金融发展理论对金融与经济的关系始终围绕金融结构、资本形成和创新投资等已知的渗透机制寻找二者的交互关系,然而,发达国家金融发展的经验需要新鲜的视角和理论来重新阐释,我们归纳了"金融趋同"的理论范畴以解释深层次的关联。通过对欧洲国家长期宏观数据的分析,证实了该现象的真实性。新建了Ex SAR模型,检验世界各国金融发展是否存在趋同现象;在上述模型运用ML法估计参数,检验世界20个国家金融发展差异是否存在条件β趋同。新模型结果显示出各项估计对比OLS法估计参数提高了显著性水平,空间相关强度系数具有较优的统计性质,均能通过1%显著性的空间依赖性检验,这说明考虑空间的影响是正确的。同时说明近30年欧洲国家的金融发展进程表现出了比较明显的空间溢出效应。
[Abstract]:The relationship between finance and economy based on traditional financial development theory has always been focused on the known penetration mechanisms such as financial structure, capital formation and innovative investment. However,The experience of financial development in developed countries needs fresh perspective and theory to reinterpret. We conclude the theoretical category of "financial convergence" to explain the deep correlation.Through the analysis of long-term macro-data of European countries, the authenticity of this phenomenon is confirmed.The ex SAR model is established to test whether there is convergence in the financial development of the world, and the ML method is used to estimate the parameters to test whether there is conditional 尾 convergence in the financial development differences of 20 countries in the world.The results of the new model show that the estimation parameters of each estimation contrast OLS method improve the significant level, the spatial correlation intensity coefficient has the better statistical property, all can pass the spatial dependence test of 1% significance.This shows that it is correct to consider the effects of space.At the same time, it shows that the financial development process of the European countries in the past 30 years shows a more obvious spatial spillover effect.
【作者单位】：西南石油大学经管学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(13CJL010)阶段性成果西南石油大学科研基金项目(2013RW004) 创新团队项目(2013XJRT001)
【分类号】：F830

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