美元贬值对中国通货膨胀的影响:传导途径及其效应

发布时间：2018-04-05 01:08

本文选题：美元贬值　切入点：通货膨胀　出处：《经济研究》2012年04期

【摘要】：本文结合有向无环图方法(DAG)及结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),分别从成本推动渠道、资金输入渠道和货币扩张渠道就美元贬值对我国通货膨胀影响的传导途径及其效应进行了实证研究。分析表明,由成本推动渠道,美元贬值会迅速带动我国工业品出厂价格上涨,能源价格、食品价格和金属价格的传导效应都很显著,而推动我国居民消费价格走高则存在一定时滞,主要依赖食品价格传导。此外,国际大宗商品价格上涨对我国通货膨胀的影响更侧重于生产领域。由资金输入渠道,美国联邦基金利率走低和美元指数下滑会带动国内商品房销售价格和资本市场价格的结构性上升,进而拉动我国通货膨胀,其中以市场利率和短期资本流动传导尤为显著。由货币扩张渠道,美元贬值对我国工业品出厂价格的影响更为显著,货币扩张主要通过外汇占款和人民币升值预期对我国通货膨胀产生影响,且以对消费领域的影响较为明显。本文的研究显示,我国当前承受着较大的输入型通货膨胀压力。
[Abstract]:Combining the directed acyclic graph (DAG) method and the structural vector autoregressive model (SVARA), this paper makes an empirical study on the transmission pathway and its effect of the dollar depreciation on China's inflation from the cost promotion channel, the capital input channel and the currency expansion channel, respectively.The analysis shows that, driven by the cost, the depreciation of the US dollar will quickly lead to the rise in the export prices of industrial products in China, and the conductive effects of energy prices, food prices and metal prices are all very significant.However, there is a certain delay in pushing up the consumer price of our country, which mainly depends on the food price transmission.In addition, the impact of rising international commodity prices on China's inflation is more focused on production.Through the channels of capital input, the decline in the US federal funds rate and the decline in the US dollar index will lead to a structural rise in the selling price of domestic commercial housing and the price of the capital market, thereby fuelling inflation in China.Among them, market interest rate and short-term capital flow transmission is particularly significant.From the monetary expansion channel, the depreciation of the dollar has a more significant impact on the export price of industrial products in China. The monetary expansion mainly affects China's inflation through foreign exchange and the expectation of RMB appreciation, and the impact on the consumption field is more obvious.The research in this paper shows that our country is under the pressure of imported inflation at present.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学金融发展与风险防范研究中心、金融管理国际研究院;中国人民银行南昌中心支行;
【基金】：江西财经大学“资本市场与行为公司金融国际学术创新团队”项目资助
【分类号】：F827.12;F822.5;F224

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