我国影子银行对商业银行稳定性的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 15:37

本文选题：影子银行　切入点：商业银行体系　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年金融危机以来,国家金融安全与稳定开始为人们所广泛关注。这次危机的罪魁祸首影子银行,因其带来的巨大的破坏性而为人们所唾弃。而在国内,作为近些年来金融创新深化的重要产物,其出现虽时间不久,但快速的发展已使他成为金融体系的重要组成部分。它的存在意义也引起了学术界监管层广泛讨论,褒贬不一。作为我国传统金融体系最重要的组成部分-商业银行,自身的稳定性强弱水平将能很好地代表我国金融的稳定发展水平。同时作为银行的“影子”,影子银行自诞生之初就与传统的商业银行有着千丝万缕的联系；故此,本文选取商业银行体系稳定性水平作为我国金融稳定性水平的代表,通过研究影子银行体系的发展对我国商业银行体系稳定性水平的影响来探讨影子银行体系发展对我国金融稳定性的影响。在查阅相关文献时笔者发现：对国内影子银行范围的界定上,研究较少且意见比较不统一；对商业银行体系稳定性的研究上,国内已经有了很多研究,但从影子银行角度入手研究两者相关性的文献很少,且基本停留在理论分析阶段。在这种情况下,本文对影子银行和商业银行体系稳定性两者分别进行估算后,进一步通过模型的方式探究两者关系,无疑具有很强的现实意义。在理论分析我国影子银行对商业银行体系稳定性影响时,笔者否认了以往文献中单方面强调的仅有风险这一说法,分析结果显示,影子银行一方面是当前金融体系漏洞的重要补充,促进了商业银行经营模式的优化；另一方面,由于缺乏监管,往往影子银行快速发展源于其监管套利的本质,给商业银行也带来了大量的风险。实证分析首先是对影子银行规模进行测算,本文主要将影子银行分为：未观测信贷、商业银行表外理财产品、信托产品三个组成部分分别进行测算。商业银行体系稳定性估算方面,笔者参考了大量国内外研究成果和国际通用标准,并结合我国金融发展的特殊性,最终确定了我国的商业银行稳定性测算指标体系,并用指标映射法得到了我国历年的银行风险状态,所得的结果与国际形势相一致。在分别完成以上两部分测算后,最终通过建立影子银行相对规模的非线性模型建模分析,实证结果表明影子银行的规模发展对商业银行体系稳定性影响具有倒U型的阂值效应,在低于阂值时,影子银行发展壮大有利于我国商业银行体系提高稳定性；而超过阈值时,却又对我国商业银行体系的稳定性起到反面效果。证明了本文的理论研究成果。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 financial crisis, national financial security and stability began to be widely concerned.Shadow banking, the chief culprit of the crisis, was spurned for its devastating nature.In China, as an important product of financial innovation and deepening in recent years, although it appeared for a short time, its rapid development has made it an important part of the financial system.Its existence significance has also caused the academic circles to supervise the stratification widespread discussion, the appraisal is different.As the most important component of the traditional financial system in China, the stability of commercial banks will represent the stable development level of our country's finance.At the same time, as the "shadow" of the bank, the shadow bank has been closely related to the traditional commercial bank since its birth. Therefore, this paper chooses the stability level of the commercial bank system as the representative of the financial stability level of our country.By studying the influence of the development of shadow banking system on the stability of China's commercial banking system, this paper probes into the influence of the development of shadow banking system on the financial stability of our country.In the review of relevant literature, the author found that: the definition of the scope of domestic shadow banking, less research and opinions are not uniform; on the stability of the commercial banking system, there have been a lot of domestic research.However, there are few literatures on the correlation between the two from the perspective of shadow banking, and they remain in the stage of theoretical analysis.In this case, after estimating the stability of shadow banking and commercial banking system, it is undoubtedly of great practical significance to further explore the relationship between the shadow banking and commercial banking system by the way of model.In the theoretical analysis of the influence of shadow banking on the stability of commercial banking system in China, the author denies the theory that only risk is emphasized in the previous literature, and the analysis results show that,Shadow banking, on the one hand, is an important supplement to the loopholes in the current financial system, which promotes the optimization of the business model of commercial banks; on the other hand, because of the lack of supervision, the rapid development of shadow banks often stems from the nature of regulatory arbitrage.It also brings a lot of risks to commercial banks.The first part of the empirical analysis is to measure the scale of shadow banking, which is divided into three parts: non-observed credit, off-balance sheet financial products of commercial banks and trust products.In the aspect of estimating the stability of commercial bank system, the author refers to a large number of domestic and foreign research results and international common standards, and combines the particularity of our country's financial development, finally determines the index system of commercial bank stability measurement in our country.The bank risk state of our country is obtained by the index mapping method, and the results are consistent with the international situation.After the above two parts are calculated, the nonlinear model of the relative scale of the shadow bank is established, and the empirical results show that the scale development of the shadow bank has an inverted U-shaped threshold effect on the stability of the commercial bank system.When the threshold is below the threshold, the development of shadow banking is beneficial to the stability of the commercial banking system in China, but beyond the threshold, it has negative effects on the stability of the commercial banking system in China.The theoretical results of this paper are proved.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.33

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