贸易项下的“热钱”流入规模估算方法新探

发布时间：2018-04-10 01:04

本文选题：热钱规模　切入点：估算方法　出处：《复旦学报(社会科学版)》2015年05期

【摘要】：近年,"热钱"流入成为国内学术界广泛关注和深入探讨的热点问题。由于关于如何界定"热钱",国内学者仍存有争议,因而尚没有形成对"热钱"规模估算的统一口径与标准方法。常规的"热钱"估算方法主要分直接法与间接法,但这两种方法还无法有效测算隐藏于贸易项下的"热钱"规模,而这正是目前"热钱"进出国内市场的最主要渠道。为此,本文从学理视角,提出了如何估算贸易项下隐藏的"热钱"规模,并应用此新方法重新测算了2003年至2011年期间净流入我国的"热钱"规模。研究结果显示,"热钱"流入的趋势特征与这一时期国内的经济形势变化及资本市场发展基本吻合,具有明显的顺周期性特征,这为加强逆周期的跨境资本流动管理提供了科学依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, hot money has become a hot issue in domestic academic circles.Since there is still controversy about how to define "hot money", there is no uniform caliber and standard method for estimating the scale of "hot money".The traditional "hot money" estimation method is mainly divided into direct method and indirect method, but these two methods can not effectively measure the scale of "hot money" hidden under trade item, and this is the most important channel for "hot money" to enter and exit the domestic market at present.Therefore, from the perspective of theory, this paper puts forward how to estimate the scale of "hot money" hidden under trade item, and remeasures the scale of "hot money" flowing into China from 2003 to 2011 by using this new method.The results show that the trend of "hot money" inflow basically coincides with the changes of domestic economic situation and the development of capital market during this period, and has obvious pro-cyclical characteristics.This provides a scientific basis for strengthening counter-cyclical management of cross-border capital flows.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院世界经济研究所;中国中投证券有限责任公司;
【基金】：2011年度教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“金融市场一体化发展与风险控制”(项目批准号:11JJD790015) 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“建立宏观审慎管理框架下的我国对外债务管理体系研究”(项目批准号:2014BJL005)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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