合会倒会风险生成机理——基于博弈矩阵模型的分析

发布时间：2018-04-13 00:15

本文选题：合会 + 倒会　；参考：《社会科学战线》2012年03期

【摘要】：合会是在中国东南沿海地区广泛存在的一种民间金融形式。合会在为农户投资消费和中小企业融资方面提供良好金融渠道的同时,各类风险也在逐步显现,倒会、崩盘事件时有发生。文章引入博弈矩阵模型,分析了合会倒会风险生成的机理,并以四个倒会合会为例,验证了基本结论。倒会的主要原因有:(1)合会会员人数和会金越大,违约的总收益越大,倒会的可能性越高;(2)会息越高,会员选择违约的可能性越大;(3)参会人员构成复杂,突破了血缘、地缘和业缘限制;(4)会员法律责任变现越困难,会员选择违约的可能性越大;(5)会金用途异化和人们的非理性逐利行为。对民间金融健康发展的启示是:民间融资半径和民间信任半径要相匹配。当熟人社会走向半熟人和匿名社会时,民间信用的非正式制裁机制需要逐渐让位于法律制裁机制。如果民间金融组织突破原有的较为封闭的地域界限和较小的规模边界之后,政府应该提供法律上和政策环境上的便利,允许这些民间金融组织转型和升级为更为高级的组织。
[Abstract]:The association is a kind of folk finance form which exists widely in the southeast coastal area of China.While providing good financial channels for farmers to invest, consume and finance small and medium-sized enterprises, all kinds of risks are also gradually appearing, and collapsing events occur from time to time.In this paper, the game matrix model is introduced to analyze the mechanism of the formation of the risk of confluence, and the basic conclusions are verified by taking four inverted confluence meetings as examples.The main reasons for the collapse are: (1) the larger the number of members and the money of the meeting, the greater the total income of default, the higher the possibility of reclining, the higher the interest rate, the greater the possibility of members choosing to default. (3) the composition of the participants is complicated and the blood relationship is broken.The more difficult it is for members to realize their legal liability, the greater the possibility of members choosing to breach the contract. 5) the alienation of the use of money and people's irrational behavior of pursuing profits.The enlightenment to the healthy development of private finance is that the radius of private financing and the radius of folk trust should be matched.When the acquaintance society moves towards the semi-acquaintance and anonymous society, the informal sanction mechanism of folk credit needs to give way to the legal sanction mechanism gradually.If the private financial organizations break through the original closed boundaries and smaller scale boundaries, the government should provide the legal and policy environment to facilitate the transformation and upgrading of these private financial organizations into more advanced organizations.
【作者单位】：宁波大学商学院;
【基金】：浙江省自然基金项目(Y6110015) 浙江省哲学社会科学规划“之江青年课题”(11ZJQN016YB) 宁波大学区域经济与社会发展研究院项目(QYJYS1104);宁波大学学科项目(xkw11003)
【分类号】：F832.4;F224.32

【参考文献】