中国国际收支格局的最新变化及其宏观影响

发布时间：2018-04-20 06:12

本文选题：双顺差 + 全球经济再平衡　；参考：《学术界》2015年12期

【摘要】：本轮金融危机之后,在全球经济再平衡的大背景下,中国国际收支状况正进入一个新的阶段,其突出表现是持续多年的经常项目和资本项目"双顺差"格局逐步向"经常项目顺差、资本与金融项目逆差"的新态势转变。国际收支格局的新变化导致外汇储备规模的下降,带来至少三个方面的宏观影响。一是在货币政策操作方面,通过外汇占款渠道投放基础货币的作用趋弱,使央行获得了主动调节基础货币的能力。二是在央行资产负债表结构方面,外汇储备资产作为中国人民银行资产绝对主体的格局逐渐发生改变,由资产负债货币结构不匹配带来的货币错配风险得到部分的释放。三是在国际投资头寸表结构方面,初步实现了从"藏汇于国"向"藏汇于民"的转变,对外金融资产负债主体错配的矛盾开始得到缓解,对外投资收益收入与对外负债支出收益率之差有所缩小。
[Abstract]:After this round of financial crisis, under the background of global economic rebalancing, China's balance of payments situation is entering a new stage. Its outstanding performance is that the pattern of "double surplus" of current account and capital account for many years is gradually changing to the new situation of "surplus of current account, deficit of capital and financial account". The new change of international balance of payments leads to the decline of foreign exchange reserve, which brings at least three macro effects. First, in the operation of monetary policy, the role of putting the base money into the monetary system through the foreign exchange occupies channel becomes weaker, which enables the central bank to gain the ability to adjust the base currency actively. Second, in the balance sheet structure of the central bank, the pattern of foreign exchange reserve assets as the absolute subject of assets of the people's Bank of China has gradually changed, and the risk of currency mismatch caused by the mismatch of the monetary structure of assets and liabilities has been partly released. Third, in terms of the structure of the international investment position table, the transition from "foreign exchange in a country" to "a foreign exchange in a country" has been preliminarily realized, and the contradiction between the mismatch of the main body of foreign financial assets and liabilities has been alleviated. The difference between income from foreign investment and the rate of return on external liabilities has narrowed.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【分类号】：F832.6

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