FDI流入对人民币汇率的影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 12:08

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 人民币汇率　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费、投资、出口是拉动经济的三驾马车,改革开放以来,我国经济快速增长的同时也面临着经济结构极度不合理的问题。我国总消费占经济比重仍然很低,截止至2012年底全国总消费占国内生产总值的比例不足50%。2010年十七届五中全会提出第十二个五年规划时,将“转方式、调结构”作为“十二五”规划的重中之重。调结构,是指利率市场化大背景下,由于投资成本提高,投资对经济的拉动作用将会受挫,为了确保经济能够软着陆,货币当局要适时的采取一定的方式提高消费以及出口在经济总产出中的比重。然而,居民的消费习惯不是一朝一夕能够改变的,在我国经济转型的当口,货币当局一定要维持出口的稳定、保证我国在国际市场的竞争力以此来维护经济稳定我国出口方面,制造业在出口中比例较高,我国出口制造业技术含量低、国际竞争力不强,属于劳动密集型产业。且目前东南亚、越南等国家已经在模仿“中国模式”采取外向型经济,在国际市场上和我国形成了竞争态势。此时,我国要保持国际竞争力必须要在维护汇率稳定的基础上逐步推进人民币汇率升值、调整我国出口结构、提高出口产品的技术含量,增加中国创造类产品。特别是出口结构的调整的过程中,要求出口企业产品技术升级短期内难度较大,所以国家一定要为其提供一个稳定的大环境,在逐步推进人民币汇率的大背景下保持人民币汇率的稳定。这也是目前实现经济软着陆的重中之重。影响人民币汇率变动的因素有很多,包括国内因素和国际因素。国内方面国内利率的变动、经济增长速度的变化、货币当局的货币政策调整等因素都会对人民币汇率产生影响,国内因素一定程度上是可以控制的。而国际方面,我国经常项目和资本项目目前正在逐步放开。货币当局处于经济的可控性考虑,而仍未完全放开我国资本项目。在我国实行这种严格资本管制的情况下,FDI资本成为了我国国际资本流动的主要形式。特别的,2002年我国首次成为全球FDI资本流入最多的国家。在实行出口经济的我国,FDI资本的流入为我国国民经济的发展作出了贡献也对我国人民币汇率造成了重大的影响。2005年,我国货币当局发文(中国人民银行公告[2005]第16号)我国开始实行有管理的浮动汇率制。从此我国人民币汇率开始进行小幅波动,迄今以来经历了长期的稳中有升的过程,这期间FDI资本作为国际资本流动的主要代表对我国人民币汇率的变动起了很大的影响。 FDI方面,1978年改革开放以来,为适应市场经济的发展需求,我国吸引外商投资带动出口、带动经济升级的政策成为我国外向型经济政策组成的一部分。1992年邓小平在深圳、珠海等南方地区发表讲话以后,FDI资本开始大量、快速、持续地涌入我国。2002年我国FDI流入量为527.43亿美元,首次超过美国而成为全球FDI资本流入最多的国家。2010年我国实际利用外资1057亿美元,一举突破千亿大关。FDI的大规模流入,给我国经济带来了相对先进的管理、科学技术,且外商直接投资企业大多数选择外贸交易,其中外商投资企业的出口交货值占所有外商企业主营业务收入的32%以上,这也促进了我国对外贸易的发展,同时使我国外汇储备大幅增加。1990年我国外汇储备余额为110.93亿美元,2000年为1665.74亿美元,2010年底为28473.38亿美元,我国外汇储备余额处在一个长期大幅上升的趋势中。 FDI对人民币汇率的影响主要表现为FDI资本流入时,国际资本对人民币的需求以及国内当局对人民币的控制使国际市场产生人民币供给缺口,从而对我国资本账户产生冲击；FDI进入我国国内之后,FDI有两个选择：进行国内消费或者进行资本积累,如果FDI流入我国境内后选择进行消费,则不论它是对我国贸易品还是非贸易品进行消费都会对国内贸易品与非贸易的相对价格造成一定程度的影响,这种影响经过一系列错综复杂的传导在购买力平价的作用下引起人民币汇率发生波动；而当FDI资本进入国内后进行资本积累时,FDI会通过贸易品与非贸易品的生产对我国经济、技术、就业以及经常账户进行影响。并且如果FDI资本进行资本积累,当FDI企业结束初期投资期而进入回报期,外资企业生产开始盈利后的利润是否汇回也会对我国外汇市场人民币供求产生影响。也就是说FDI资本从在国际市场寻求进入我国的途径到进入国内甚至转化成利润汇出这其中的每一阶段都将对我国国内经济以及人民币汇率产生影响但每一步的影响方式和结果却又有所差别,所以理清FDI资本在我国进行消费或生产的具体情况并进行分析,理顺FDI对我国人民币汇率的影响机制尤其重要,这也对货币当局制定相关政策提供了思路。本文的目的在于厘清FDI从流入我国到进行消费和生产再到最后流出国内这—过程中FDI资本通过影响我国国际收支、国内贸易品与非贸易的相对价格、国内经济增长速度、国内技术水平等来影响我国人民币汇率的机制。并通过实际数据证明FDI和我国人民币汇率之间存在的短期和长期稳定的关系。以此给货币当局稳定人民币汇率方面提供相应的参考。本文研究结构如下：第一部分主要介绍本文的选题背景,阐述在当今国际大背景下梳理清楚FDI资本和人民币汇率之间关系的重要意义。提出本文的研究思路和方法,本文采用理论研究与实际检验相结合的方法,首先介绍理论假设,之后通过数据证明假设在我国的有效性。之后介绍本文的创新,本文首先分析了流入我国的FDI资本的特点,并在此基础上将这种FDI各个方面纳入到研究中来,从FDI进入到最后FDI潜在的利润流出各个方面进行了阐述。第二部分从国内和国际两个角度分别介绍了对国际资本流动对—国汇率的影响以及FDI资本对汇率的影响两方面的研究,并重点对研究FDI和我国人民币汇率之间关系的文献进行了梳理。第三部分为本文的主要部分。首先介绍了国际资本流动的目的包括不同动机的FDI资本的各个特点,并分析了FDI资本选择我国进行投资的原因。之后分析了相对于国内资本来讲,我国政府更偏好FDI资本的原因。在此基础上本文根据实际数据对流入我国的FDI资本的特征进行了具体调研,弄清流入我国的FDI资本行业、产业的具体分布情况。之后针对流入我国的FDI资本,从资金流动过国内初始到资金流入各个部门时对相应部门造成的影响进行了分析其和人民币之间的联动关系。第四部分在理论基础的基础上进行了变量选择,选取国内相应的数据将人民币实际有效汇率、FDI净流入量和其他对人民币汇率造成影响的经济变量如代表一国财政政策的政府购买变量、代表一国国际竞争性的贸易条件数据纳入到一个回归方程中进行实证分析,检验实际数据是否支持本文理论,并提出相应的解释。第五部分在理论假设与实证研究的基础上从我国的人民币汇率和流入我国的FDI资本两个角度进行了总结并提出相关建议。本文的创新之处在于很多前人文章是通过研究FDI对出口、FDI对经济增长率的影响来间接说明FDI和人民币汇率之间的关系,而本文直接对流入我国的FDI资本进行考察,并按照FDI资本流动路径按照FDI从流入到进入国内进行资金运作到流出我国,追踪资金流动的全过程,并分阶段解释FDI对人民币汇率的影响。且国内大多数研究主要集中于FDI和人民币汇率之间的实证关系或者只局部的研究FDI对人民币汇率的部分影响,没有将FDI从国际市场流入一进入国内进行生产积累—扩大再生产或利润汇回—利润最大化目的外对东道国经济的影响等进行全方位的跟踪研究。本文试图尝试这种研究方式,并通过实证结果进行验证。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and export are the three carriages to drive the economy. Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth is also facing extremely unreasonable economic structure. China's total consumption is still very low, and the proportion of total national consumption to GDP by the end of 2012 is insufficient in the fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee of 50%.2010. In the twelfth five year plan, the "transfer mode and structure" is the most important part of the "12th Five-Year" plan. The adjustment of the structure is that the investment will be frustrated because of the increase in the investment cost in the background of the interest rate marketization. In order to ensure a soft landing, the monetary authorities should take a timely manner to raise the price. High consumption and the proportion of exports in the total economic output. However, the consumption habits of the residents are not able to change overnight. In the moment of China's economic transformation, the monetary authorities must maintain the stability of the export and ensure the competitiveness of our country in the international market in order to maintain economic stability.
In China's export, the proportion of manufacturing industry in export is high, China's export manufacturing industry is low in technology and international competitiveness, which belongs to labor intensive industry. At present, in Southeast Asia, Vietnam and other countries have taken an export-oriented economy in imitation of the "Chinese model" and formed a competitive situation with our country in the international market. On the basis of maintaining the international competitiveness, we must gradually advance the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on the basis of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate, adjust the export structure of our country, improve the technical content of the export products, and increase the production of Chinese products. In the process of the adjustment of the export structure, it is difficult for the export enterprises to upgrade the production technology in the short term, so the country is one of the most difficult ones. We must provide a stable environment for it and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate in the context of the gradual advance of the RMB exchange rate, which is the most important part of the current soft landing.
There are many factors affecting the change of RMB exchange rate, including domestic factors and international factors. Domestic interest rate changes at home, the change of economic growth rate, monetary policy adjustment and other factors will affect the RMB exchange rate, and the domestic factors can be controlled to some extent. The items and capital projects are now being gradually liberalized. The monetary authorities are in the economic controllability and still have not completely liberalized our capital account. In the case of strict capital control in China, FDI capital has become the main form of international capital flow in China. In particular, China became the world's largest FDI capital inflow for the first time in 2002. In our country where the export economy is implemented, the inflow of FDI capital contributes to the development of China's national economy and has a significant impact on the RMB exchange rate in China for.2005 years. China's monetary authorities' document (the people's Bank of China's announcement [2005] sixteenth) began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system in China. The rate began to carry on a small fluctuation, and so far has experienced a long period of steady progress. During this period, FDI capital, as the main representative of the international capital flow, had a great impact on the change of the RMB exchange rate in China.
FDI, since the reform and opening up in 1978, in order to meet the needs of the development of the market economy, the policy of attracting foreign investment to drive the export and promoting the economic upgrading has become a part of the foreign economic policy of our country. After Deng Xiaoping's speech in Shenzhen, Zhuhai and other southern regions in Zhuhai, the capital of FDI began to pour into a large, rapid and continuous flow. China's FDI inflow in.2002 was 52 billion 743 million US dollars in China, which was first overtaken by the United States and became the world's largest FDI capital inflow country for the first time. In.2010, our country actually utilized 105 billion 700 million dollars in foreign capital, and broke through the large-scale inflow of hundreds of billions of customs.FDI, which brought relatively advanced management, science and technology, and most foreign direct investment enterprises in our country. The number of foreign trade transactions is selected. The export delivery value of foreign invested enterprises accounts for more than 32% of the main business income of all foreign enterprises. This also promotes the development of our foreign trade. At the same time, the foreign exchange reserve of our country has increased by a large amount of $11 billion 93 million in.1990 years. In 2000, it is 166 billion 574 million US dollars and the end of 2010 is 28473.38. The balance of China's foreign exchange reserves is in a long-term upward trend.
The influence of FDI on the exchange rate of RMB is mainly manifested in the inflow of FDI capital, the demand of international capital to RMB and the control of the domestic authorities on the RMB make the RMB supply gap in the international market, which will impact on the capital account of our country. After FDI enters our country, FDI has two choices: domestic consumption or advance. In the case of capital accumulation, if FDI flows into our country and chooses to consume, whether it is the consumption of China's trade goods or non trade goods will affect the relative price of domestic trade goods and non trade to a certain extent. This effect is caused by a series of intricate transmission under the effect of purchasing power parity. When the FDI capital enters the country, when the capital is accumulated, the FDI will affect the economy, technology, employment and current account of our country through the production of trade goods and non trade goods. And if the capital of FDI is accumulated, the production of foreign enterprises will begin when the FDI enterprise ends the initial investment period. The repatriation of profit will also affect the supply and demand of RMB in China's foreign exchange market. That is to say, the influence of FDI capital from the international market to our country and even into the remittance of profit will affect the domestic economy and the exchange rate of the people's currency, but each step will affect each step. The methods and results are different, so it is particularly important to clarify the specific situation of FDI capital consumption or production in China and to analyze the impact mechanism of FDI on the RMB exchange rate in China, which also provides a way of thinking for the monetary authorities to formulate relevant policies.
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the mechanism of the influence of FDI capital on the RMB exchange rate in China through the influx of China's international balance of payments, the relative price of domestic trade goods and non trade, the domestic economic growth rate and the domestic technical level in the process of FDI from the flow of our country to consumption and production to the final outflow of China. The relationship between FDI and China's RMB exchange rate is proved to be short-term and long-term stable, so as to provide a reference for the monetary authorities to stabilize the RMB exchange rate.
The structure of this paper is as follows:
The first part mainly introduces the background of this paper, expounds the significance of the relationship between FDI capital and RMB exchange rate under the international background. This paper puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. This paper adopts the method of combining theoretical research and actual test, first introduces the theoretical hypothesis, and then proves the hypothesis by data. The effectiveness of our country. After introducing the innovation of this article, this article first analyzes the characteristics of FDI capital inflow into our country, and on this basis, the various aspects of this kind of FDI are brought into the research, and the potential profit outflows from FDI to the final FDI are expounded.
The second part introduces the study on the impact of international capital flow on the exchange rate and the influence of FDI capital on exchange rate from two perspectives at home and abroad, and focuses on the literature of the study of the relationship between the exchange rate of FDI and the exchange rate of China's RMB.
The third part is the main part of this article. First, the purpose of the international capital flow is to introduce the various characteristics of FDI capital with different motives, and to analyze the reasons for the choice of FDI capital to invest in our country. After that, we analyze the reasons why our government prefers the FDI capital to the domestic capital. Based on this, this paper is based on the actual number. According to the specific investigation of the characteristics of FDI capital inflow into China, the specific distribution of FDI capital industry in China is cleared up, and then the impact of the flow of capital flowing into our country's FDI capital, from the flow of capital to the respective departments when the capital flows over the domestic initial to the capital inflow to the corresponding departments, is analyzed and the linkage between the capital and the RMB is analyzed. Relationship.
The fourth part carries out the selection of variables on the basis of the theoretical basis, and selects the corresponding domestic data to make the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the net flow of FDI and other economic variables that affect the RMB exchange rate, such as the government purchase variable representing a country's fiscal policy, which represents the international competitive trade condition data on behalf of a country. An empirical analysis is carried out in a regression equation to test whether the actual data support the theory and propose corresponding explanations.
The fifth part, on the basis of theoretical hypothesis and empirical study, summarizes the RMB exchange rate and the FDI capital inflow into China in two aspects and puts forward some suggestions.
The innovation of this article is that many previous articles have studied the relationship between FDI and the exchange rate of RMB indirectly through the study of the effect of FDI on export and the impact of FDI on the economic growth rate. This article is a direct study of the FDI capital inflow to China, and in accordance with the flow path of FDI capital flow from the flow of FDI into the country to carry out the operation of the capital to the stream. In our country, the whole process of capital flow is traced, and the effect of FDI on the exchange rate of RMB is explained in stages. And most of the domestic research mainly focuses on the empirical relationship between FDI and RMB exchange rate or partial study of the partial effect of FDI on the exchange rate of RMB, and does not inflow FDI from the international market to the domestic production. A full tracking study of the impact of the expansion of reproduction or profit remittance to the profit maximization of the host country's economy. This paper tries to try this way of research and verifies it through empirical results.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】