中国影子银行效应、风险及监管研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 22:46

本文选题：影子银行 + 经济效应　；参考：《辽宁大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：已经过去近六年的金融危机至今还让世界心惊胆战，因为谁都无法预知危机效应是否完全表露，后续能否会隐藏着更大的危机爆发，在这场没有硝烟的战争中，世界各国付出的代价是惨重的。全球经济复苏疲软，不确定性因素持续增多，世界经济如何在金融领域重建平衡成为各国重要任务。面对金融危机虽有忌惮，但还是要研究与分析金融危机，在探索中改革经济金融领域的缺陷，维护金融体系稳定。在这个过程中，一个新的金融术语——影子银行跃然出现在世人面前，引起国际社会的广泛关注，因为世界金融体系的结构因他而改变了。影子银行体系,概括的说是指作为对商业银行的补充，发挥与商业银行类似的职能却不像商业银行一样受到监管体系的严密监管，游离在监管的灰色地带或者监管之外,这个非银行金融体系的发展历程是金融机构与政府监管不断博弈的过程。当前，较普遍的观点认定影子银行是金融危机爆发和货币政策失效的罪魁祸首，是系统性风险的重要来源，而监管缺失是导致危机的主要推手，因此各国开始严格审视本国金融系统,将影子银行体系作为重点研究对象,而重中之重就是对监管框架的探讨与搭建。其实，影子银行并不必然产生系统性风险，过去30余年的运行及其给美国金融体系带来的高效、高收益说明严控、制止其发展是不合理的。换句话说，影子银行是金融技术、制度创新的产物，而没有金融创新就没有金融发展。金融市场的多样化、多层级发展是提高金融效率的关键。随着金融创新的深化，跨行业、跨机构、跨市场、跨国界的金融业务交叉融合，影子银行的系统重要性开始增强，对金融体系稳定性影响越来越突出。揭开影子银行的面纱，影子银行的业务实质上是复制与延伸了金融衍生产品，释放出大量流动性，满足社会资金需求。但是开发产品的机构或个人无法凭借计算机、模型、数学公式来推算产品蕴藏的风险级数，因此增加了影子银行复杂而神秘的特性。在金融危机发生之前，西方经济发达市场被经济繁荣灌输了投资热情，忽视了风险所在，出现借贷超负荷，影子银行规模巨大，超出传统银行的2倍，而且形式多样、变化多端，极高的关联度和复杂的结构掩盖了运作实质，超出监管视力所及。而中国的影子银行与传统银行的融资模式类似，没有太复杂的关系，更多的是充当了传统商业银行的补充渠道。但随着金融市场自由化和国际化，中国的影子银行迅速发展起来，在某种程度上改变了中国的金融结构，使中国的金融领域和整个经济社会的的发展发生了根本性的改变。中国需要在金融领域重建平衡，那么需要将影子银行的经济效应、风险及监管纳入到一个框架中进行整体了解与研究，才能系统而有针对性的提出对策，达到平稳解决中国影子银行问题的目的。因此，论文以理论研究为出发点，运用数据分析、实证检验以及模型拟合等相关方法系统分析中国的影子银行，以期在全面认识中国影子银行迅速发展的动因、宏观经济效应、对传统商业银行的影响、风险本质和监管现状的基础上，全面构建适合中国国情的影子银行风险监测体系，平衡构建中国影子银行的监管框架。第一部分（第1章），概括性的提出论文的选题背景、研究意义以及研究思路和方法，重点分类总结了国内外研究现状和文献综述，提出创新与不足。第二部分（第2章），影子银行之所以能高速发展、创新产品并推动金融体系结构的变革,需要各种基础理论的支持，因此第二章，在介绍二元金融理论、监管套利理论和金融创新理论和金融抑制论的基础上，泛泛介绍影子银行的内涵与外延、运行现状并分析了影子银行内生属性的效应。第三部分（第3-5章），全面分析中国影子银行发展现状、对宏观经济的异动效应和对传统商业银行的影响。第三章，重新定义中国影子银行的概念及市场结构，着重分析了其繁荣发展的成因和主要产品的运行现状。第四章，运用灰色预测和SPSS等计量经济学统计方法拟合出GDP、M2分别对影子银行的影响的线性方程，以此来说明影子银行与经济增长的相互影响关系，运用经济学的分析方法，图解了影子银行对货币政策的冲击和影响。第五章，，通过微观经济学原理，运用边界分析，找到影子银行和传统银行的最佳贷款规模的临界点，解释临界点的意义，实证分析了影子银行对传统商业银行盈利性的滞后一期影响和对信贷配给方式的影响。第四部分（第6-7章），论文的落脚点在于影子银行的风险监测与防范以及平衡构建中国影子银行监管体系。第六章，影子银行与传统商业银行具有相似的信用创造功能，但却破坏了货币乘数的作用，其潜在风险不可避免，却可以监测和防范，于是在风险压力指标视角下通过实证分析，提出对中国影子银行风险进行防范的对策建议。第七章，以理论分析和模型解析为导向，借鉴FSB、美国、英国、欧盟对影子银行的国际监管经验，在研究中国监管环境的基础上提出平衡构建中国影子银行监管体系的建议。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis that has been over the past six years has also been a world of terror to the world, because no one can predict whether the effect of the crisis is fully revealed, and whether the follow-up will hide a greater crisis. In this war without smoke, the price of the world is heavy. The recovery of the whole economy is weak and the uncertainty continues to increase. How the world economy rebalances in the financial field has become an important task for all countries. Although there is fear in the face of the financial crisis, it is still necessary to study and analyze the financial crisis, to reform the defects in the economic and financial field and to maintain the stability of the financial system in the exploration. In this process, a new golden term, the shadow bank, appears in the world. Before, it has attracted wide attention of the international community, because the structure of the world financial system has changed because of him.
As a supplement to commercial banks, the shadow banking system, as a supplement to commercial banks, is not closely regulated by the regulatory system like commercial banks. The development of this non bank financial system is a continuous game between financial institutions and government supervision. At present, the more common view is that the shadow bank is the culprit of the financial crisis and the failure of monetary policy. It is an important source of systemic risk, and the lack of supervision is the main push to cause the crisis. Therefore, countries begin to examine their own financial systems strictly and take the shadow banking system as the focus of research, and the most important In fact, shadow banking is not necessarily a systemic risk. The operation of the past 30 years and its high efficiency for the American financial system, the strict control of the high income statement, and the suppression of its development are unreasonable. In other words, the shadow bank is a product of financial technology, institutional innovation, and no financial innovation. There is no financial development. The diversification of the financial market and the multi-layer development are the key to improve the financial efficiency. With the deepening of the financial innovation, the cross industry, cross agency, cross market, cross-border financial business intersecting, the importance of the system of shadow banking has been strengthened and the stability of the financial system is more and more prominent. Veil, the shadow banking business is essentially duplicating and extending financial derivatives, releasing a lot of liquidity to meet the needs of social funds. But the institutions or individuals that develop products can not rely on computers, models, and mathematical formulas to calculate the risk progression of the products, thus increasing the complex and mysterious characteristics of the shadow banking.
Before the financial crisis, the western economic developed markets were instilled in the enthusiasm of investment by economic prosperity, ignoring the risk, overloading of lending, the huge size of the shadow banks, 2 times more than the traditional banks, and varied and varied forms, and high relevance and complex structures covered the operational essence beyond the regulatory vision. The shadow banking in China is similar to the traditional bank's financing mode, not too complicated, and more is the supplement channel for the traditional commercial banks. However, with the liberalization and internationalization of the financial market, the shadow banks in China have developed rapidly. In some ways, the financial structure of China has been changed to the financial field of China. A fundamental change has taken place in the development of the economy and society as a whole. China needs to rebuild its balance in the financial field, so that the economic effects, risks and supervision of the shadow banking should be integrated into a framework to make a whole understanding and research in order to make a systematic and targeted proposal to achieve a smooth solution to the problem of China's shadow banking. Objective.
Therefore, this paper, based on the theoretical research, uses data analysis, empirical test and model fitting to analyze the shadow banking system in China, in order to fully understand the causes of the rapid development of China's shadow banking, the macroeconomic effects, the impact on the traditional commercial banks, the nature of the risk and the status of supervision. Build a shadow banking risk monitoring system suitable for China's national conditions and balance the regulatory framework of China's shadow banking.
The first part (the first chapter), generality puts forward the background of topic selection, research significance and research ideas and methods, mainly classifies the research status and literature review at home and abroad, and puts forward innovation and deficiency.
The second part (second chapter), the reason why the shadow bank is able to develop rapidly, innovate the product and promote the reform of the financial system structure needs the support of all kinds of basic theories. Therefore, the second chapter introduces the connotation and extension of the shadow banking on the basis of the introduction of the two yuan financial theory, the supervision arbitrage theory, the financial innovation theory and the financial restraint theory. The present situation of operation and the effect of endogenous attributes of shadow banking are analyzed.
The third part (Chapter 3-5), a comprehensive analysis of the status quo of the development of China's shadow banking, the effect on the macroeconomic effects and the impact on the traditional commercial banks. The third chapter, redefining the concept and market structure of the Chinese shadow bank, and focusing on the causes of its prosperity and development and the running status of the main products. In the fourth chapter, the grey prediction and SP are used. SS and other econometric methods fit the linear equation of the influence of GDP and M2 to the shadow bank respectively, in order to explain the interaction relationship between the shadow bank and the economic growth, and use the economic analysis method to illustrate the impact and influence of the shadow bank on the monetary policy. The fifth chapter, through the principle of microeconomics, uses the boundary analysis. The critical point of the best loan scale of the shadow bank and the traditional bank is found, and the significance of the critical point is explained. The impact of the shadow bank on the lag of the profitability of the traditional commercial banks and the way of the credit rationing are empirically analyzed.
The fourth part (Chapter 6-7), the foothold of the thesis lies in the risk monitoring and prevention of the shadow bank and the construction of the shadow banking supervision system in China. The sixth chapter, the shadow bank and the traditional commercial banks have similar credit creation functions, but they have destroyed the use of the monetary multiplier, and the potential risks are inevitable, but they can be monitored and prevented. The seventh chapter, guided by theoretical analysis and model analysis, draws lessons from the international regulatory experience of FSB, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union on the shadow banking, and puts forward a balanced construction of China on the basis of the study of China's regulatory environment. Proposals for the shadow banking regulatory system.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.39

【参考文献】