基于经济冲击对称性的东亚货币合作研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 23:15

本文选题：最优货币区理论 + 东亚货币合作　；参考：《预测》2012年03期

【摘要】：每次金融危机爆发都会引起人们对区域货币合作的高度关注。亚洲金融危机催生了东亚货币合作的基石即以清迈倡议(CMI)为代表的区域救助机制,而此次危机后形成的标志性合作成果则是清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)。本文正是基于上述事实通过建立向量自回归模型比较东亚地区过去30年和近10年经济冲击对称性的差异,以考察东亚地区货币合作基础的新特征和变化趋势。结果表明,东亚地区小国间的经济冲击对称性一直很高,并继续呈上升趋势;而近年来,最为显著的变化是以中日为代表的大国间的经济冲击对称性的显著提高,因而为东亚更深层次的货币合作奠定基础。鉴于此,本文认为东亚区域货币合作应适时调整为以"亚洲共同繁荣"为目标,由过去的"危机推动型"合作转向以中日为代表的"大国推动型"合作。
[Abstract]:Every time a financial crisis breaks out, people pay close attention to regional monetary cooperation. The Asian financial crisis gave birth to the regional rescue mechanism represented by the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI), the cornerstone of monetary cooperation in East Asia, and the signature outcome of this crisis is the multilateral mechanism of the Chiang Mai Initiative. Based on the above facts, this paper compares the differences of the symmetry of economic shocks in East Asia in the past 30 years and in the past 10 years by establishing a vector autoregressive model to investigate the new characteristics and trends of monetary cooperation in East Asia. The results show that the symmetry of economic shock among small countries in East Asia has been very high and continues to rise, while in recent years, the most significant change is the significant improvement of the symmetry of economic shocks among large countries represented by China and Japan. Thus lay the foundation for deeper monetary cooperation in East Asia. In view of this, this paper holds that the regional monetary cooperation in East Asia should be adjusted to the goal of "common prosperity in Asia" at the right time, from the "crisis-driven" cooperation in the past to the "big country push" cooperation represented by China and Japan.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(10YJA790002) 辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助项目(L10BJY011) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT11RW201)
【分类号】：F823.1

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