观念的传播、过滤与美国国际货币政策

发布时间：2018-05-03 02:00

本文选题：观念 + 美国国际货币政策　；参考：《外交学院》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：本文讨论的主要问题是思想观念对美国国际货币政策决策的影响。一般来说,对美国国际货币政策决策的研究主要是从现实利益角度来考察的。但是,通过对选取的美国国际货币政策决策案例的观察与分析,本文发现决策并不必然建立在现实利益的基础上。而界定现实利益的观念对决策者有决定性的影响。本文以美国国际货币政策的两次重大变化为案例来分析观念对决策的影响。第一个案例是美国二战结束前夕,管理干预思想观念对布雷顿森林体系设计的影响。当时美国的国内经济和国际经济地位与一战后情况相似。一战后美国的政策选择是积极恢复自由放任的金本位,而二战结束前夕美国却选择建立管理干预的国际货币体系。第二个案例是70年代自由放任思想观念对美国关闭黄金窗口转向浮动汇率的影响。肯尼迪、约翰逊时期和尼克松时期都面临着严重的国际收支问题。在这种情况下,他们都可以选择放弃黄金兑换转向浮动汇率,也都可以通过美国在国际体系中的主导地位继续维系布雷顿森林体系。但是,由于观念的不同,肯尼迪、约翰逊时期选择维系管理干预的布雷顿森林体系,而尼克松时期选择了转向浮动汇率。通过这两个案例,我们可以看到现实利益并不必然决定美国国际货币政策的决策结果,思想观念对美国国际货币政策中的反常现象具有解释力。本文建立了观念影响决策的流程和机制。经济思想观念主要通过三个路径传播进入决策层,它们是社会思潮与大众媒体传播、认知共同体的推动和政府经济学家的推动。在案例分析中可以看到这三个路径都不同程度地起到了观念传播的作用。本文讨论了决策层观念的过滤作用,即决策层对政策的选择取决于其是否对供选择政策及其代表的观念的认同与接受。决策层观念过滤网的形成取决于决策层不同部门机构或决策者观念的博弈,博弈的结果取决于决策层的权力结构和关系结构。当决策层对某一观念认同感强且各机构部门的观念统一,则代表该观念的政策得以被选择并且决策实施比较稳定;当决策层对某一观念的态度不明确且各机构部门观念不统一,则决策会出现波动和反复。这两点在案例的分析中都得到了体现。
[Abstract]:The main problem discussed in this paper is the influence of ideas on the international monetary policy decisions of the United States. Generally speaking, the research of American international monetary policy decision is mainly from the angle of realistic interest. However, through the observation and analysis of the selected cases of international monetary policy decision in the United States, this paper finds that the decision is not necessarily based on the actual interests. The concept of defining realistic interests has a decisive impact on decision-makers. This paper takes two major changes in American international monetary policy as an example to analyze the influence of ideas on decision-making. The first case is the influence of the idea of management intervention on the design of Bretton Woods system on the eve of the end of World War II. The domestic and international economic status of the United States was similar to that of the first World War. After World War I, the policy choice of the United States was to actively restore the laissez-faire gold standard, but before the end of World War II, the United States chose to establish an international monetary system to manage its intervention. The second case is the effect of laissez-faire ideas on the US closing the gold window to floating exchange rates in the 1970s. Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon all faced serious balance-of-payments problems. In this case, they can either abandon gold exchange and switch to floating exchange rates, or they can continue to maintain the Bretton Woods system through the United States' dominance of the international system. However, because of different ideas, Kennedy and Johnson chose to maintain the Bretton Woods system of management intervention, while Nixon chose to switch to floating exchange rate. Through these two cases, we can see that the actual interests do not necessarily determine the decision results of the United States international monetary policy, and the ideas have an explanatory power to explain the abnormal phenomena in the international monetary policy of the United States. This paper establishes the process and mechanism of concept influencing decision-making. The economic thoughts and ideas are mainly propagated into the decision-making level through three paths. They are the promotion of social thoughts and mass media, the promotion of cognitive community and the promotion of government economists. In the case study, we can see that these three paths have played a role in the dissemination of ideas to varying degrees. This paper discusses the filtering function of the decision level concept, that is, the decision making layer's choice of policy depends on whether it agrees with and accepts the alternative policy and the concept it represents. The formation of the decision level concept filter depends on the game of the different department organization or the decision maker idea, and the result of the game depends on the power structure and the relation structure of the decision level. When the decision-making level has a strong sense of identity to a certain idea and the concept of the various agencies and departments is unified, then the policy representing that idea is chosen and the decision-making process is relatively stable; when the decision-making level is not clear about a certain idea and the concept of the various agencies and departments is not unified, The decision will fluctuate and repeat. These two points are reflected in the case analysis.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F827.12

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