人民币升值对人民币国际化的影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 12:55

本文选题：人民币升值 + 人民币国际化　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国作为正在崛起中的大国，其主权货币——人民币，近年来始终受到来自各方面的升值压力。中国是否应当在人民币升值的压力下完成人民币的国际化；人民币升值对人民币国际化将会产生哪些影响；升值中的人民币国际化需要解决哪些问题，采用怎样的对策，这一系列问题直接关系到中国经济发展、政治稳定。在理论基础的阐述中，本文列举了与人民币国际化有关的5种理论，即国际化货币特征理论、利率平价理论、HO定理、资本管制理论和马歇尔—勒纳条件。在第三部分中，本文回顾了美元国际化过程所经历的重大历史事件，从中归纳出了美元国际化中关键的三方面措施——稳定汇率、发展离岸金融、提升本国经济控制力。经过进一步的研究，把稳定汇率当作中心任务，离岸金融与经济控制力当作具体操作方法。在探讨汇率稳定与主权货币国际化间的矛盾时，，本文分析了人民币国际化相对美元国际化所面临国际环境的不同，强调了人民币升值压力是人民币国际化最显著的优势条件。人民币升值除了在汇率上直接支持人民币国际化，还有利于离岸金融市场的发展和中国经济控制力的提高。离岸金融市场发展的先决条件是人民币被广泛使用与接受，而人民币升值能直接给接受人民币支付、希望增加人民币资产的个人、企业和国家以资产的增值的利益，对离岸金融市场发展起到了重要的推动作用。单纯靠“郑和下西洋”、“番邦朝觐”式的赔本推动人民币国际化是不能长久的，人民币国际化的成败最根本的决定因素还是中国的经济控制力。只有中国保持经济增长，充分参与以自己为核心的世界经济全球化分工才能保证人民币的购买力。人民币升值可以缓解中国国内的“国富民穷”、两极分化，为中国更合理的世界投资布局解决后顾之忧，因此，人民币升值在中国经济控制力方面也有助于人民币国际化。但是人民币升值也对人民币国际化有一定的负面作用，这主要体现在中国的开放程度和经济稳定上。升值影响了中国出口商品和服务的竞争优势，削弱了中国经济增长的三驾马车之一的外贸出口。升值的让利也使国外投资者和投机分子更加想分享中国经济成长的成果，这要求中国施行严格的资本管制，降低中国的开放程度。从而最大限度降低人民币升值的负面影响。在第四部分，从经济学、金融学角度出发，对人民币升值在人民币国际化方面的实际影响给出了图示化的例证，证明了理论推导出的结果在现实条件下已经有所应验。第五部分和第六部分中，本文针对人民币升值对人民币国际化的负面影响提出了解决问题的政策建议，重申了本文的核心观点——人民币升值总体上有利于推动人民币国际化，其不利于人民币国际化的方面可以通过协调人民币升值与人民币国际化的速度；交互发展人民币汇率自由化和人民币国际化来化解。
[Abstract]:As a big country in the rise , China ' s sovereign currency , the renminbi , has been under pressure in recent years from various aspects . Should China be able to complete the internationalization of the renminbi under the pressure of the yuan ' s appreciation ;
What is the impact of RMB appreciation on the internationalization of RMB ;
The internationalization of RMB in the appreciation of RMB needs to solve the problems and the countermeasures . The series of problems are directly related to China ' s economic development and political stability .

In the exposition of the theoretical foundation , this paper lists five theories related to RMB internationalization , namely , international monetary characteristic theory , interest rate parity theory , HO theorem , capital control theory and Marshall - Renner condition .

In the third part , this article reviews the major historical events experienced by the internationalization of the United States dollar , and sums up the key three measures _ stabilizing exchange rate in the internationalization of the United States dollar , the development of offshore finance and the promotion of domestic economic control . After further research , the stability of RMB is regarded as the central task , and the offshore financial and economic control force is regarded as the concrete operation method .

In addition to the direct support of RMB internationalization on the exchange rate , the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the development of offshore financial markets and the improvement of China ' s economic control . The precondition for the development of offshore financial markets is that RMB is widely used and accepted , and the value appreciation of RMB can directly contribute to the development of offshore financial markets .

But RMB appreciation also has a certain negative effect on the internationalization of RMB , which is mainly reflected in China ' s openness and economic stability . The appreciation influences the competitive advantage of China ' s export commodities and services and weakens the export of one of the three carriages of China ' s economic growth . The value of appreciation also makes foreign investors and speculators more interested in sharing the fruits of China ' s economic growth , which requires China to implement strict capital controls and reduce China ' s openness .

In the fourth part , from the angle of economics and finance , the practical influence of RMB appreciation on the internationalization of RMB gives an example of illustration , which proves that the theoretical deduction has already been fulfilled under realistic conditions .

In the fifth part and the sixth part , this paper puts forward the policy suggestion of solving the problem based on the negative effect of RMB appreciation on RMB internationalization , and reiterates that the core idea of this paper is beneficial to the internationalization of RMB , which is not conducive to RMB internationalization .
Interactive development of RMB exchange rate liberalization and RMB internationalization .

【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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