我国房产税改革效果评估及对居民储蓄行为的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 17:48

本文选题：房产税 + 房价　；参考：《华中科技大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：房产税改革作为我国财税体制改革的重要方面,对房地产市场调控、收入分配以及提升地方财力等都有着重要的意义。房产税作为国家调节房地产市场与国家经济分配的一个重要杠杆,是继土地、金融等政策实施后,国家利用税收手段加强对房地产市场宏观调控的又一手段。与以往房地产调控手段,例如限购、限贷以及减免土地出让金等,不同之处就是房产税改革将具有长期性,通过对住房市场持有环节的征税,进一步抑制房地产市场的投资、投机需求。 2011年1月28日房产税改革在上海和重庆两个地区率先试点运行,两个城市分别公布了各自房产税改革的细则。虽然细则的内容有所区别,但是两个试点城市都有很强的针对性,对大面积住房、高档住房以及超标准多套住房开征房产税。这对限制住房市场的投机炒作、抑制住房消费的两极分化等方面可以起到一定的积极作用,理论上不会影响居民合理的自住性需求。房产税改革自试点运行已经有两年时间了,房产税改革的效果如何?是否对试点地区的房价产生影响?以及房产税改革能否起到调节收入分配的作用?这些都是房产税改革关注的焦点。本项研究主要做了以下工作：首先从文献综述、房产税改革的历史进程、房产税的作用、国内外房产税对比以及房产税改革评析方面,对房产税进行详细的介绍,并奠定本文的研究基础。其次,本文从理论和实证方面先后验证了房产税改革对试点地区住房价格的影响。本文建立消费者——开发商模型以及投资者——开发商模型,理论上分析了房产税改革对住房价格的影响。并利用2011年2月在上海和重庆成为房产税改革试点作为自然实验,基于2010年6月到2012年2月40个大中城市的面板数据,采用项目评估中的合成控制法(Synthetic Control Methods)以及双重差分法(DID模型)估计了房产税对试点城市房价的影响,研究发现试点城市中房产税改革对房价上涨的抑制作用有所差别,其中重庆地区住房价格的影响较为明显,房产税使得重庆地区试点城市的平均房价相对于其潜在房价下降了156.61-350.80元／平米,下降幅度达到5.27%。而上海地区虽然也表现为住房价格的下降,但下降幅度较小,合成控制法(Synthetic Control Methods)以及双重差分法(DID模型)估计的结果都不显著。本次房产税改革属于“窄税基”,主要针对大面积住房征收房产税,那些原本准备购买大面积住房的居民预期会承受较大的税负,同时又无法到非试点城市购置住房,因此他们出于避税的动机将主动转向其他类型的住房市场,进而对住房市场产生结构性扭曲。通过建立双重差分(DID)模型,实证检验了房产税改革对住房价格结构的影响。研究发现,1、房产税影响房价的作用在大面积住房市场上更为明显,房产税的平均效应主要是由大面积住房市场构成的；2、由于存在挤出的需求,小面积住房市场价格反而增长更快。如果房产税政策的出发点是为了增进低收入群体的福利,希望通过房产税的征收来挤出市场投机,从而降低房价,使得那些低收入者也能买得起住房,那本文研究的结论至少表明该政策没有达到预期的效果,反而降低了低收入群体的福利。顺承本文重庆地区房产税改革对住房价格的影响研究,尤其是对住房价格的结构性影响。进一步通过理论和实证先后验证了房产税改革对试点地区居民储蓄行为的影响。通过建立房产税——高收入者以及房产税——低收入者的理论模型,研究了房产税改革对不同收入水平居民储蓄行为的影响。实证检验方面通过建立三重差分(DDD)以及双重差分(DID)模型对这一现象进行实证分析,研究发现房产税改革对中低收入居民储蓄行为影响明显,对中高收入居民影响不明显。房产税改革对中低收入居民储蓄在平均水平上提高了8.67个百分点,其中对收入分位数在25%-50%之间的影响比25%水平以下的强烈。本文的研究也说明了房产税改革违背了政策的初衷,一定程度上损害了中低收入居民的福利,他们不得不为非应税住房快速上涨的房价而储蓄更多。最后本文提出房产税改革全国推广的相关政策建议,主要涉及房产税改革的征管措施以及房产税改革相关配套措施两方面。本文的研究是对房产税改革试点运行情况的研究,不仅首次理论和实证研究了房产税改革对居民住房价格的影响,并发现房产税改革因为其“窄税基”的特点,会导致挤出需求而引发的税收转嫁的现象。同时也是初次研究房产税改革对不同收入水平居民储蓄行为的影响,通过储蓄行为来说明中低收入居民福利的损失。房产税改革作为房价和储蓄外生政策冲击,也能够较好的说明房价与居民储蓄行为之间的关系。本文的研究内容对房产税改革全国的推广具有重要的理论和现实意义。
[Abstract]:As an important aspect of our country ' s financial and taxation system reform , property tax reform is of great significance to the real estate market regulation , income distribution and the promotion of local financial resources . As a key lever of the state adjustment of the real estate market and the national economic distribution , the property tax is another means to strengthen the macro - control of the real estate market by means of taxation means .

On January 28 , 2011 , the reform of the property tax took the lead in the first pilot operation in both Shanghai and Chongqing . Although the contents of the Detailed Rules differ , the two pilot cities have strong pertinence , which will not affect the rational self - living needs of the residents .

This study mainly makes the following work : firstly , from the literature review , the historical process of the reform of the real estate tax , the effect of the property tax , the comparison of the real estate tax at home and abroad , and the assessment and analysis of the property tax reform , introduce the property tax in detail , and lay a foundation for the study .

Secondly , the effect of real estate tax reform on housing price in pilot area is analyzed theoretically and empirically . In this paper , the effect of real estate tax reform on housing price is analyzed in this paper . The effect of real estate tax reform on housing price is analyzed theoretically .

This property tax reform belongs to " narrow tax base " , mainly aiming at large - area housing collection of property tax , those originally intended to buy large - area housing are expected to bear large tax burden , meanwhile , they are unable to purchase housing in non - pilot cities , so that they will not be able to purchase housing in non - pilot cities . Therefore , the effect of real estate tax reform on housing price structure is verified empirically by establishing a dual differential ( DID ) model .
2 . Because of the need for extrusion , small - area housing market prices have grown faster . If the starting point of the property tax policy is to promote the welfare of low - income groups , it is desirable to squeeze market speculation through the collection of property taxes so as to lower house prices so that low - income people can afford housing , which at least shows that the policy does not achieve the expected effect , but rather reduces the benefits of low - income groups .

This paper studies the effect of the reform of real estate tax on the savings behavior of residents in the pilot area through the establishment of triple differential ( DDD ) and double difference ( DID ) model .

In the end , the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the reform of real estate tax , which mainly deals with the reform of real estate tax and the measures related to the reform of real estate tax . The research is not only the first theoretical and empirical research on the effect of the reform on the housing price of the residents , but also the loss of the welfare of the middle and low - income residents by saving behavior .

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.42;F299.23;F832.22

【参考文献】