金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响渠道研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 14:04

本文选题：金融危机 + 中国出口　；参考：《大连理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：源于美国次贷市场的危机迅速蔓延到其他国家,不仅席卷欧盟、日本等发达国家,也波及包括中国在内的发展中国家,2008年演变成为一次全球金融危机。很多评论家和政策制定者都把目前的金融危机视为自20世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的金融冲击。这次危机的突出特点之一是国际贸易的大幅下滑,其下滑幅度比世界GDP的下滑幅度更大。由于与全球经济的紧密融合,中国的出口在这次衰退期间受到了较大冲击。迄今为止,金融危机对国际贸易影响的理论研究还未形成体系,大多数研究是有关金融危机对中国出口影响的描述性统计分析,或者简化的计量分析,仍然缺乏详细的实证检验。在这一背景下,本文研究了2008年金融危机对中国出口的影响,其中着重检验了金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响渠道。这个研究有助于设计应对金融危机的响应政策及如何避免未来可能发生的再次贸易下滑。本文采用理论分析和实证分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析并用的方法,在对2008年金融危机以来中国出口的下滑进行描述的基础上,对金融危机影响出口贸易的渠道进行了解析,并利用中国的出口贸易数据进行了检验,研究的主要内容和结论包括以下四部分：第一,依据需求-供给框架解析了金融危机影响出口贸易的三个主要渠道：外部需求的减少、贸易保护主义的抬头和贸易融资的紧缩。分析表明：外部需求的下降能解释一部分出口的下降；金融危机以来保护主义不断蔓延,阻碍了国际贸易；贸易融资受到了金融危机的冲击,因而对贸易产生了不利影响。在这个基础上,分别对这三种影响渠道进行了详细的实证分析。第二,利用基于OECD投入产出表的、经进口含量调整的新需求测度和面板模型,对外部需求渠道进行的检验表明：危机期间外部需求下降对中国出口有显著的冲击；发达国家的需求对中国出口的影响比发展中国家需求的影响要大；中国出口谷底时期遭受外部需求收缩的负面影响非常大。第三,运用构建的动态差分引力模型对贸易保护渠道进行的检验表明：金融危机以来中国出口受到了贸易保护主义的显著冲击；发达国家的贸易保护主义措施对中国出口的冲击程度大于发展中国家；关税措施和政府采购等非关税壁垒是阻碍中国出口的主要形式,救助／国家援助和出口补贴对中国出口的间接冲击较为突出；贸易保护主义对中国的机械、金属、矿产品和加工食物行业中产品的出口阻碍尤其明显。第四,使用面板模型对贸易融资渠道进行的检验表明：贸易融资条件的紧缩对中国出口有阻碍作用；虽然没有发现金融危机放大紧缩的贸易融资条件对总出口影响的证据,但贸易信贷可获得性较高的行业和拥有较多有形资产的行业,其出口受到的金融危机冲击较显著。最后,基于原因解析和实证研究,提出了有针对性的政策建议和未来的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The crisis from the US subprime market spread quickly to other countries , not only in developed countries such as the European Union , Japan , but also in developing countries , including China , and the global financial crisis in 2008 . Many critics and policymakers have seen the current financial crisis as the worst financial shock since the Great Depression of the 1930s . One of the outstanding features of this crisis is a sharp decline in international trade , which has seen a larger decline than the world ' s GDP . As a result of tight integration with the global economy , China ' s exports have suffered a greater impact during this recession .

So far , the theoretical research on the impact of the financial crisis on international trade has not yet formed a system , most of which is a descriptive statistical analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on China ' s exports , or a simplified measurement analysis . In this context , the paper studied the impact of the financial crisis on China ' s exports .

Based on the description of the decline of China ' s exports since the financial crisis of 2008 , this paper analyzes the channels of the export trade in China since the 2008 financial crisis , and makes use of China ' s export trade data . The main contents and conclusions of the study include the following four parts :

First , according to the demand - supply framework , the three main channels of the financial crisis affecting the export trade are analyzed : the reduction of external demand , the rise of protectionism and the tightening of trade finance .
protectionism has been spreading since the financial crisis , which has hindered international trade ;
Trade finance has been impacted by the financial crisis , thus exerting a negative impact on trade . On the basis of this , detailed empirical analysis is carried out on these three influencing channels .

Secondly , using the new demand measure and panel model based on the OECD input - output table and adjusted by imported content , the inspection of external demand channel shows that external demand decline has a significant impact on China ' s exports during the crisis .
The impact of the needs of developed countries on China ' s exports is greater than that of developing countries ;
The negative effects of external demand contraction in China ' s export valley are very big .

Thirdly , using the constructed dynamic differential gravity model to test the trade protection channels shows that China ' s exports have been significantly impacted by protectionism since the financial crisis ;
Trade protectionism measures in developed countries have greater impact on China ' s exports than in developing countries ;
Non - tariff barriers , such as tariff measures and government procurement , are the main obstacles to China ' s exports , and the indirect impact of aid / national aid and export subsidies on China ' s exports is more prominent ;
Trade protectionism is particularly clear to China ' s exports of machinery , metals , minerals and processed food products .

Fourthly , the use of the panel model to test the trade financing channel shows that the tightening of trade financing conditions has an obstacle to China ' s exports ;
While there was no evidence of the impact of the financial crisis on the overall export impact of the restrictive trade financing conditions , trade credit availability was higher in industries and industries with more tangible assets , with the impact of the financial crisis being affected by the financial crisis .

Finally , based on the reason analysis and the empirical research , a specific policy suggestion and future research direction are put forward .

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.59;F752.62

【参考文献】