美国量化宽松政策对我国经济影响的检验研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 11:08

本文选题：美联储 + 量化宽松　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融危机以来,美联储为复苏国内经济开始采取非常规货币政策工具,实施大规模资产购买计划,降低联邦基金利率至0-0.25%的低位,并且自2008年11月25日以来不断深入实施了三轮量化宽松货币政策。虽然美国国内经济逐渐呈现缓慢复苏的趋势,但是由此造成的全球流动性泛滥,导致了全球各国的经济都在不同程度上受到美联储量化宽松的影响,尤其是新兴市场国家承载了巨大的流动性压力。随着美国国内经济的稳步回升,稳步退出量化宽松,逐渐缩紧银根,提高联邦基金利率,都将成为必然趋势。在此大背景下,分析研究美联储量化宽松对我国宏观经济产生的影响,及我国应如何应对量化宽松的退出就具有重要的现实意义。目前国内大部分研究主要集中在理论研究以及量化宽松政策实施后,分析我国一些主要经济变量的前后变化以及产生这种变化的内在传导机制的分析角度做研究。本文首先对量化宽松的实施背景、内容、影响以及目前的研究现状进行了考察和评述。其次,就量化宽松对一国金融市场产生影响的模型应用发展进行了回顾。在结合我国经济实际情况的基础上,建立有效的货币政策信息传递模型,研究在量化宽松政策实施期间,美联储主席伯南克的讲话以及定期召开的货币政策会议会后声明对于我国汇率市场中人民币兑美元汇率及上证指数收益率变化的冲击效果。本文不但将美联储信息发布作为虚拟变量引入模型中,研究货币政策信息发布对我国金融市场价格及波动的影响,深化了该领域的研究,同时也建立了一个与普遍建立的向量自回归模型不同的GARCH模型研究框架,推进了这一领域的模型研究。提出的新的检验模型,对于研究量化宽松货币政策对于我国金融市场价格的变化及波动具有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has taken unconventional monetary policy tools to revive the domestic economy, implemented large-scale asset purchases and lowered the federal funds rate to a low of 0-0.25%. And since November 25, 2008, the monetary policy of three rounds of quantitative easing has been carried out in depth. Although the domestic economy of the United States is gradually showing a trend of slow recovery, the resulting flood of global liquidity has led to the impact of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing on the economies of the world to varying degrees. Emerging market countries, in particular, bear enormous liquidity pressures. With the steady recovery of the US domestic economy, the steady withdrawal from quantitative easing, the gradual tightening of money and the raising of the federal funds rate will become inevitable trends. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to analyze and study the impact of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing on China's macro economy and how to deal with the withdrawal of quantitative easing. At present, most of the domestic researches mainly focus on the theoretical research and the implementation of quantitative easing policy, and analyze the changes of some main economic variables in China before and after the change and the internal transmission mechanism of the changes. In this paper, the background, content, impact and current research status of quantitative easing (QE) are reviewed and reviewed. Secondly, the development of model application of QE on a country's financial market is reviewed. Based on the actual situation of China's economy, an effective information transmission model of monetary policy is established to study the implementation of quantitative easing policy. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks and statements after regular monetary policy meetings have had an impact on changes in the renminbi's exchange rate against the dollar and on the Shanghai stock exchange rate in China's currency markets. This paper not only introduces the Federal Reserve information release as a virtual variable into the model, but also studies the influence of monetary policy information release on the price and volatility of China's financial market, and deepens the research in this field. At the same time, a research framework of GARCH model, which is different from the commonly established vector autoregressive model, is also established, which promotes the research of the model in this field. The new test model is helpful to the study of the monetary policy of quantitative easing for the change and fluctuation of the price in the financial market of our country.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F827.12;F124.1;F224

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