中国货币政策转换中麦卡勒姆规则的实证检验

发布时间：2018-05-19 02:42

本文选题：麦卡勒姆规则 + 货币政策转换　；参考：《经济管理》2012年01期

【摘要】：本文以2010年1月我国开始实行的货币政策方向转换为着眼点,对货币政策麦卡勒姆规则进行了实证检验。首先,对货币政策麦卡勒姆规则的文献做了一个扼要的综述;其次,简要介绍了麦卡勒姆规则及其发展,并论证了该规则对我国当前的适用性;最后,论文介绍了本文实证样本数据的选择和技术性处理方式;最后,检验了麦卡勒姆规则下我国的基础货币反应函数,并根据我国的实际情况进行了两项改进:一是引入外汇储备增长率这一解释变量,发现模型对基础货币增长率的解释能力得到了增强;二是以通货膨胀率作为解释变量考察基础货币的增速关系,发现通货膨胀率的变动一定程度上是货币政策操作实施后的结果。在此基础上,本文总结了实证结论,并阐述了可能的政策启示。
[Abstract]:Based on the change of monetary policy direction in January 2010, this paper empirically tests the Mccallum rules of monetary policy. First of all, this paper makes a brief review of the Mccallum rules of monetary policy. Secondly, it briefly introduces the Mccallum rules and their development, and demonstrates the applicability of the rules to our country at present. This paper introduces the selection of empirical sample data and the technical processing methods. Finally, the paper tests the basic monetary response function of China under the Mccallum rule. Two improvements are made according to the actual situation of our country: first, introducing the explanatory variable of the rate of growth of foreign exchange reserve, and finding that the explanatory ability of the model to the growth rate of basic currency has been enhanced; Second, the inflation rate is used as the explanatory variable to investigate the relationship between the growth rate of the basic currency, and it is found that the change of the inflation rate is to some extent the result of the implementation of monetary policy. On this basis, this paper summarizes the empirical conclusions and expounds the possible policy implications.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院金融系;中国农业银行浙江分行;
【基金】：教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国的经济增长与经济发展”(11JJD790046);教育部人文社科青年基金项目“金融风险的演化与跨国分摊研究”(09YJC790163) 福建省社科基金项目“非平衡系统演化博弈与金融风险跨国分摊研究”(2009B2003)
【分类号】：F822.0

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