非常规货币政策的理论效应与实际效果之比较

发布时间：2018-05-22 12:37

本文选题：零利率 + 货币政策　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2012年11期

【摘要】：在全球金融危机中,美国等主要国家的央行实施了零利率货币政策,并在零利率约束下求助于量化宽松等非常规货币政策工具。文章使用金融市场和宏观经济运行的各项数据并结合最新实证研究结果,对非常规货币政策的实际效果与理论效应进行逐一比较,对非常规货币政策的各种理论假设效应进行全面的验证。总体而言,非常规货币政策确实可以通过几个传导效应起到降低长期实际利率的作用,但是截至目前对信贷扩张以及刺激总需求的效果比较有限,在此基础上进一步探讨了非常规货币政策未如理想的原因、非常规货币政策理论效应存在的不确定性以及时滞等因素制约了其发挥更大作用。
[Abstract]:In the global financial crisis, central banks in major countries, such as the United States, implemented zero-rate monetary policy and resorted to unconventional monetary policy instruments such as quantitative easing under zero interest rates. Based on the data of financial market and macroeconomic operation and the latest empirical research results, this paper compares the actual and theoretical effects of unconventional monetary policy one by one. The theoretical hypothesis effect of unconventional monetary policy is verified comprehensively. In general, unconventional monetary policy does have the effect of lowering long-term real interest rates through several conductive effects, but so far has had a limited effect on credit expansion and stimulating aggregate demand. On this basis, the reasons why unconventional monetary policy is not ideal are further discussed. The uncertainty of the theoretical effect of unconventional monetary policy and the time delay restrict the unconventional monetary policy to play a more important role.
【作者单位】：广东商学院金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“金融危机下经济政策国际合作与冲突及中国的对策研究”(项目批准号:10CGJ015),国家社会科学基金项目(“金融危机后人民币汇率大国博弈及中国对策研究”(项目批准号:11CGJ009)的阶段性成果广东商学院国民经济研究中心“资本市场与投融资研究创新团队”项目的资助
【分类号】：F820

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