对我国货币供给内生性与外生性问题的再探讨——基于联立方程回归的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 10:37

本文选题：货币供给 + 内生性与外生性　；参考：《财经问题研究》2012年12期

【摘要】：货币供给是内生的还是外生的?对此问题的回答直接影响到一国货币政策的制定思路与实施效果,因此需要我们给出清晰的回答。目前,对于我国货币供给内生与否的问题虽然已多有论述,但都存在明显的不足。"外生说"缺少实证检验,"内生说"虽有大量的实证检验,但所采用的格兰杰因果检验法存在严重的缺陷,这包括:(1)它偏离了经济学关于判断货币供给内生或外生的标准;(2)它在确定解释变量时具有太大的随意性。为此,本文首先明确了判断标准;其次使用TSLS方法对我国货币的供求函数同时进行了估计。按照明确后的标准,估计的结果显示我国货币供给在现阶段依然是外生的。最后澄清了关于货币外生供给的一些误解。
[Abstract]:Is money supply endogenous or exogenous? The answer to this question has a direct impact on the formulation and implementation of a country's monetary policy, so we need to give a clear answer. At present, the question of whether the money supply is endogenous or not in our country has been discussed much, but there are obvious shortcomings. " Exogenous theory "lack of empirical test," endogenous theory "although there are a large number of empirical tests, but the Granger causality test adopted by the method has serious defects, This includes: 1) it deviates from the standard of economics in judging the endogenous or exogenous money supply. 2) it has too much arbitrariness in determining the explanatory variables. For this reason, this paper firstly defines the criterion, and then uses TSLS method to estimate the supply and demand function of Chinese currency simultaneously. According to the clear criteria, the estimated results show that China's money supply is still exogenous at this stage. Finally, some misunderstandings about the exogenous supply of money are clarified.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：北京交通大学基本科研业务费项目“收入差距的变化对经济增长影响的计算机模拟分析”(2011JBM237)
【分类号】：F224;F822.2

【参考文献】