人民币低估之谜:一个投入产出分析

发布时间：2018-06-02 03:13

本文选题：人民币实际汇率 + 竞次　；参考：《经济研究》2012年10期

【摘要】：所谓"人民币低估之谜",包含两方面事实:一是人民币实际汇率随经济增长而持续贬值,二是西方学界普遍认为人民币实际汇率近年来存在大幅度低估。本文认为,中国日益恶化的地区间竞次,导致各部门单位产出的中间投入和工资成本不断下降,进而通过三种价格乘数效应严重压低了中国的物价和工资水平,是产生"人民币低估之谜"的主要原因。本文对标准的投入产出模型加以拓展,以两个在中国存在严重"竞次"现象的部门(公路货运业和煤炭开采业)作为案例,利用投入产出表来模拟竞次的价格水平效应。模拟结果显示,竞次可以充分解释"人民币低估之谜"。本文表明,要使人民币实际汇率达到并维持在合理水平,必须对中国的地区间竞次加以有效治理,这要求中国经济体制的全面改革和经济发展模式的转型。
[Abstract]:The so-called "mystery of RMB undervaluation" includes two facts: one is that the real exchange rate of RMB continues to depreciate with economic growth, the other is that the western academic circles generally believe that the real exchange rate of RMB has been substantially undervalued in recent years. This paper argues that the worsening inter-regional competition in China has led to a continuous decline in the intermediate input and wage costs per unit output of various sectors, and that the price and wage levels in China have been severely reduced through three price multiplier effects. It is the main reason for the mystery of RMB undervaluation. In this paper, the standard input-output model is extended to simulate the price level effect by using the input-output table to simulate the price level effect in two departments (highway freight industry and coal mining industry) which have serious "race order" phenomenon in China. The simulation results show that the race can fully explain the mystery of RMB undervaluation. This paper shows that in order for the RMB real exchange rate to reach and maintain at a reasonable level, it is necessary to effectively manage the regional competition in China, which requires the overall reform of China's economic system and the transformation of its economic development model.
【作者单位】：北京大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F822.0;F223

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