我国城乡通货膨胀的趋同演化及影响因素

发布时间：2018-06-13 15:05

本文选题：城乡经济一体化 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《经济研究》2012年09期

【摘要】：本文基于一价定律和我国的经济转型背景,针对城乡通胀的数据演化特征,设定内生性结构突变的平滑机制转移模型,以此检验我国城乡通胀的趋同性及其非线性调节特征,揭示我国城乡商品市场分割与整合的演化进程。结果表明:(1)我国城乡通胀差是在1994年发生结构变化的平稳过程,平稳性表明我国城乡通胀具有趋同性,城乡商品市场整体呈现一体化特征。(2)1994年前,我国城乡商品市场分割程度较大,城乡商品流通的非套利区间较宽,城乡通胀差向均衡的回调速度较快;1994年后,城乡商品流通的非套利区间较小,城乡商品市场整合程度进一步深化,城乡通胀差向均衡的回调速度较慢。(3)城乡商品流通的运输成本、信息成本和贸易壁垒等因素较好地解释了1994年后城乡通货膨胀的趋同演化。本文结果说明,城乡二元结构的逐步消除和我国近期所实施的推动城乡经济协调发展的政策,显著促进了城乡经济一体化。
[Abstract]:Based on the law of one price and the background of economic transformation in China, this paper sets up a smooth mechanism transfer model of endogenous structural change to test the convergence of urban and rural inflation and its nonlinear regulating characteristics. This paper reveals the evolution of the segmentation and integration of China's urban and rural commodity markets. The results show that the difference between urban and rural inflation in China was a stable process of structural changes in 1994, and the smoothness indicated that the rural-urban inflation in China had a convergence, and the overall commodity market in urban and rural areas showed the characteristics of integration. The non-arbitrage range of commodity circulation in urban and rural areas is wider, and the correction speed of urban-rural inflation difference to equilibrium is faster. After 1994, the non-arbitrage range of commodity circulation in urban and rural areas is relatively small, and the non-arbitrage range in urban and rural commodity circulation is smaller than that in urban and rural areas after 1994. The degree of integration of urban and rural commodity markets is further deepened, and the rate of adjustment of urban-rural inflation difference to equilibrium is slower. 3) the transportation cost, information cost and trade barriers of urban and rural commodity circulation explain the convergence and evolution of urban and rural inflation after 1994. The result shows that the gradual elimination of urban-rural dual structure and the policy of promoting the coordinated development of urban-rural economy implemented recently in China have significantly promoted the integration of urban and rural economy.
【作者单位】：华东交通大学经济管理学院;中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71040004) 国家社科基金项目(11CJY076) 教育部人文社会科学项目(09YJC790085) 全国优秀博士论文基金项目(201104) 江西省自然科学基金项目(2009GZS0005)的资助
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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