中国资本外逃的贸易渠道分析

发布时间：2018-06-15 09:59

本文选题：资本外逃 + 贸易伪报　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球一体化的深入,国际间资本流动成为了世界经济中最活跃的力量。资本外逃是一种隐蔽的资本流动,它难以测算并且对一国经济有着极大的影响。加入WTO以后,中国面临着更加开放的市场,对于资本的监管也面临更严峻的挑战。由于一系列经济和制度原因,进出口贸易成为中国资本外逃的重要渠道。因此,对贸易渠道外逃的资本进行测算和研究有着深远的意义。首先,本文在回顾文献和基于中国国情的基础上,从合法性和是否受监管的角度定义资本外逃。然后阐述通过贸易渠道进行资本外逃的具体手段以及与其他渠道的对比,指出在现有外汇管制制度下,进出口贸易是中国资本外逃的重要途径,并总结资本外逃对中国的影响。然后,本文使用IMF DOT数据库的双边贸易数据和香港转口数据计算出中国2000-2012年间通过贸易渠道外逃资本的总规模为2.36兆美元,并发现贸易项下巨额的资本双向流动掩饰了资本外逃的真实规模；进出口伪报涉及的贸易伙伴国比较集中,为美国、墨西哥、加拿大、台湾、马来西亚等。第三,作者使用IMF的BOP数据,采用国际通用的残差法和热钱法,计算出中国资本外逃总规模,并用贸易项下资本流动额进行调整。发现贸易项下资本流动额对中国资本外逃的总额有着巨大的影响。然后将其与FDI、GDP等经济指标进行比较,并进行历史比较和国际对比。第四,作者通过理论模型的构建和面板数据回归,找出中国贸易项下资本外逃的主要影响因素为汇率、关税、资本市场开放度、国际市场利率和单位商品价值率等。最后,针对前文的计算和实证结果,本文提出加强海关监管、稳步推进资本市场开放、深化国内金融改革等相关政策建议。本文对中国入世以来通过贸易渠道进行的资本外逃做出了较为详尽的计算和分析。但对资本流动主要凭借的进出口商品类别没有进行具体的研究,希望能在未来的学习研究中继续深入。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of global integration, international capital flow has become the most active force in the world economy. Capital flight is a kind of hidden capital flow, which is difficult to measure and has great influence on a country's economy. After entering WTO, China is faced with more open market and more severe challenge to capital supervision. Because of a series of economic and institutional reasons, import and export trade has become an important channel for Chinese capital flight. Therefore, it is of great significance to measure and study the capital of trade channel flight. Firstly, on the basis of literature review and China's national conditions, this paper defines capital flight from the point of view of legality and whether it is regulated. Then it expounds the specific means of capital flight through trade channels and its comparison with other channels, and points out that under the existing foreign exchange control system, import and export trade is an important way for China's capital flight, and summarizes the impact of capital flight on China. Then, using the bilateral trade data of IMF DOT database and Hong Kong re-export data, we calculate that the total scale of China's capital flight through trade channels from 2000 to 2012 is 2.36 trillion US dollars. It is also found that the huge two-way capital flows under trade cover up the true scale of capital flight, and that the trade partners involved in import and export falsification are relatively concentrated, such as the United States, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Malaysia, and so on. Thirdly, using the BOP data of IMF, the author calculates the total scale of Chinese capital flight and adjusts the amount of capital flow under trade item by using the residual method and hot money method. It is found that the amount of capital flow under trade has a great impact on the total amount of capital flight in China. Then compare it with FDI GDP and other economic indicators, and carry on historical comparison and international comparison. Fourthly, the author finds out that the main influencing factors of capital flight under Chinese trade are exchange rate, tariff, capital market openness, international market interest rate and unit commodity value rate through the construction of theoretical model and panel data regression. Finally, based on the previous calculation and empirical results, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions, such as strengthening customs supervision, steadily promoting the opening of capital market, deepening domestic financial reform, and so on. This paper makes a detailed calculation and analysis of capital flight through trade channels since China's entry into WTO. However, there is no specific research on the categories of import and export commodities by which capital flows depend, and we hope to further study in the future.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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