我国通货膨胀拐点预测模型及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 19:52

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 合成压力指数　；参考：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2012年06期

【摘要】：影响我国通货膨胀的结构性因素包括:流动性水平、成本推进、工业化和城市化、资产价格泡沫、财政政策与产业政策、量化宽松货币政策、人民币升值预期、国际大宗商品市场价格上涨8个方面25个典型代表性经济指标。基于上述指标创造性地建立了我国通货膨胀的拐点预测模型。将模型分别应用于我国2011年和2012年的通货膨胀预测,发现通货膨胀由上升状态转为下降状态的拐点时刻为2011年7月,2012年上半年通货膨胀会保持大于2的下降趋势,这与我国通货膨胀实际表现相一致。根据通货膨胀在今年下半年会下探到小于2随机游走状态的可能,结合我国通货膨胀内部压力结构的分析,提出合理化解和控制通货膨胀内部压力的五条建议,来保持我国通货膨胀的稳定与适度。
[Abstract]:The structural factors affecting China's inflation include: liquidity level, cost push, industrialization and urbanization, asset price bubble, fiscal policy and industrial policy, quantitative easing monetary policy, RMB appreciation expectation. The international commodity market price rises 8 aspects 25 typical representative economic indicators. Based on the above indexes, the inflection point prediction model of China is established creatively. Applying the model to the forecast of inflation in our country in 2011 and 2012, we find that the inflection point of inflation changing from rising state to descending state is July 2011, and the inflation will maintain a downward trend of more than 2 in the first half of 2012. This is in line with the actual performance of inflation in China. According to the possibility that inflation will be less than 2 random walks in the second half of this year, combined with the analysis of the internal pressure structure of inflation in China, five suggestions for rationalizing and controlling the internal pressure of inflation are put forward. To maintain the stability and moderation of inflation in China.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学东北亚研究院区域经济研究所;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(08JJD790153) 吉林省社科基金项目(2012BS41) 吉林大学杰出青年基金项目(2010JQB32)
【分类号】：F822.5;F224

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