非正规金融机构向正规金融机构流动性危机传染机制研究——基于存款者全局博弈视角

发布时间：2018-06-24 19:00

本文选题：非正规金融机构 + 正规金融机构　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2015年12期

【摘要】：长久以来,非正规金融机构和正规金融机构是两种并存的金融组织形式。近年来,大量非正规金融组织在农村涌现,其流动性风险逐渐累积,一个值得思考的问题是:非正规金融机构的流动性危机是否会传染到正规金融机构,传染的可能机制是什么?笔者基于存款者视角,构建了全局博弈模型,分析非正规金融机构流动性危机向正规金融机构传染的机理,即非正规金融机构流动性危机的发生使得"悲观"的存款者变得更为悲观,但危机发生有助于"乐观"的存款者识别对方的悲观程度,这种态度改变及其学习效应影响了存款者在面对正规金融机构时的博弈策略,最终导致危机的传染。笔者进一步用案例证明了这一结论。基于此,无论政府还是正规金融机构均有必要防范非正规金融机构的金融风险,研究结论对于如何改善既有的农村金融监管质量具有参考意义。
[Abstract]:For a long time, informal financial institutions and formal financial institutions are two forms of financial organization. In recent years, a large number of informal financial organizations have emerged in rural areas, and their liquidity risks have gradually accumulated. A question worth considering is whether the liquidity crisis of informal financial institutions will infect formal financial institutions. What is the possible mechanism of infection? Based on the perspective of depositors, the author constructs a global game model to analyze the mechanism of liquidity crisis from informal financial institutions to formal financial institutions. That is, the liquidity crisis of informal financial institutions makes the "pessimistic" depositors more pessimistic, but the crisis can help the "optimistic" depositors to identify the other side's pessimism. This attitude change and its learning effect affect depositors' game strategies in the face of formal financial institutions and eventually lead to contagion. The author further proves this conclusion by case study. Based on this, it is necessary for both the government and the formal financial institutions to guard against the financial risks of informal financial institutions. The conclusion of the study has a reference significance on how to improve the quality of rural financial supervision.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学财政金融学院;南京农业大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“农民资金互助组织演化过程中风险累积的识别与抑制研究”(项目编号:71273138) 教育部博士学科点专项科研基金(博导类)“农民资金互助组织发育机理与响应条件研究”(项目编号:20110097110008)
【分类号】：F832.35

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