人民币升值、企业行为与出口贸易——基于大样本企业数据的实证研究:2005～2009

发布时间：2018-07-08 09:44

本文选题：人民币升值 + 出口行为　；参考：《管理世界》2012年12期

【摘要】：本文建立了一个简化的动态离散选择模型,在利润最大化框架下分析企业出口的两阶段决策行为和汇率因素的作用,并以2005~2009年间中国工业企业的样本数据,采用Heckman选择模型评估人民币升值对出口贸易的整体影响和结构影响。研究表明,人民币升值从集约边际和扩展边际两方面对企业出口产生了显著的负面冲击。与此同时,由于异质性企业在经营策略上的差异,导致人民币升值难以起到优胜劣汰的预期效果,反而不利于出口贸易主体结构的优化调整。人民币升值在一定程度上驱动出口行业结构朝着高级化方向发展,但这种积极作用主要来源于外资企业的贡献,却限制了先进制造业中本土企业的成长空间。在国内外经济不确定性较高的环境下,为保障经济转型的平稳过渡,应暂缓人民币升值的步伐,改以其他更具针对性的政策措施来推动出口贸易升级和经济结构调整。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a simplified dynamic discrete choice model is established to analyze the role of the two stage decision behavior and the exchange rate factor of the enterprise's export under the profit maximization framework. The Heckman selection model is used to evaluate the overall influence and structural influence of the RMB's rise value on the export trade with the sample data of the Chinese industrial enterprises in 2005~2009 years. The study shows that the RMB appreciation has a significant negative impact on the export of enterprises from the two sides of the intensive margin and the extended margin. At the same time, because of the difference in the management strategy of the heterogeneous enterprises, the appreciation of the RMB is difficult to be expected to be the expected effect of the survival of the fittest. On the contrary, it is unfavorable to the optimization and adjustment of the structure of the main body of export trade. The positive effect of this positive effect is mainly from the contribution of foreign enterprises, but it restricts the growth space of local enterprises in the advanced manufacturing industry. In the environment of high economic uncertainty at home and abroad, it is necessary to postpone the RMB promotion for the smooth transition of the economic transformation. The pace of value change is aimed at other more targeted policies and measures to promote export trade upgrading and economic restructuring.
【作者单位】：上海立信会计学院;华东师范大学;
【基金】：上海市教委科研创新重点项目(编号:13ZS135) 上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(编号:2010BJL001) 上海市教委重点学科(第五期)建设项目(国际贸易:J51702)的资助
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F279.2;F752.62

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