不同汇率体制下升值压力对经济的影响——基于人民币和日元经历的分析

发布时间：2018-07-08 10:08

本文选题：汇率体制 + 升值压力　；参考：《中国经济问题》2012年05期

【摘要】：通过构建含有升值压力的宏观开放经济模型,本文研究了不同汇率体制下升值压力对经济的影响。分析表明,在两种体制下,升值压力都会导致实际汇率升值和利率下降。但是,固定汇率体制下的经济倾向于出现过热,而浮动汇率体制下的经济则容易出现收缩。实证结果证实了上述分析。2000年以来,人民币升值压力每增加一个百分点,中美通货膨胀率之差就会上升0.41个百分点。本文也分析了20世纪70年代初期以来日元升值压力的来源。结果显示,美国经济增长加速和美日贸易项目恶化会在一定程度上增加日元的升值压力。而当美国经济陷入内外部失衡时,日元的升值压力则会大幅上升。具体来说,日元的升值压力指数将会上升2.6%,日本干预外汇市场买入美元的概率将会上升55%。
[Abstract]:By constructing a macroeconomic model with appreciation pressure, this paper studies the influence of appreciation pressure on economy under different exchange rate systems. The analysis shows that, under both systems, appreciation pressure will lead to real exchange rate appreciation and lower interest rate. However, the economy under the fixed exchange rate system tends to overheat, while the economy under the floating exchange rate system tends to contract. The empirical results confirm the above analysis. For every percentage point increase in appreciation pressure since 2000, the difference between China and the United States inflation rate will rise by 0.41 percentage points. This paper also analyzes the source of the pressure of yen appreciation since the early 1970s. The results showed that accelerating U.S. economic growth and worsening U.S.-Japan trade projects would add to the appreciation pressure on the yen to some extent. And when the U.S. economy falls into internal and external imbalances, the yen's upward pressure will rise sharply. Specifically, the yen's appreciation pressure index will rise 2.6 percent, and Japan's probability of intervening in foreign exchange markets to buy dollars will rise by 55 percent.
【作者单位】：西南民族大学;
【基金】：西南民族大学经济学院应用经济学硕士一级学位点(2011XWD-S0202)
【分类号】：F832.6

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