通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与货币增长不确定性之间的关联分析

发布时间：2018-07-09 22:30

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 通货膨胀不确定性　；参考：《系统工程》2012年05期

【摘要】：我国通货膨胀的冲击可以划分为通货膨胀不确定性的冲击和货币增长不确定性的冲击,通过分析我国通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与货币增长不确定性之间的关联关系,结果显示:我国长期通货膨胀不确定性对通货膨胀产生正向冲击,短期通货膨胀不确定性对通货膨胀产生负向冲击;货币增长过快对通货膨胀长期不确定产生正向冲击,对短期通货膨胀不确定性产生负向冲击。同时,本文也得出了我国通货膨胀率的机制转换与中央银行的货币政策机制的变化之间存在紧密的联系,处于扩张状态的货币供给增加是导致通货膨胀的主要原因。这为如何减少货币政策的不确定性在具体操作上给予了一定的参考价值,明晰货币政策机制变化在通货膨胀-通货膨胀不确定性关系中所扮演的角色起到了一定的作用。
[Abstract]:The impact of inflation in China can be divided into the impact of inflation uncertainty and the uncertainty of monetary growth. Through the analysis of the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and the uncertainty of monetary growth, the result shows that the uncertainty of inflation in our country has a positive impact on inflation. The uncertainty of short-term inflation has a negative impact on inflation; the excessive growth of money has a positive impact on the long-term uncertainty of inflation and a negative impact on the uncertainty of short-term inflation. At the same time, this paper also draws a conclusion that the mechanism of inflation rate in China is between the change of the central bank's monetary policy mechanism. In close connection, the increase of money supply in the state of expansion is the main cause of inflation. This gives a certain reference value for how to reduce the uncertainty of monetary policy in specific operation, and clarifying the role played by the change of monetary policy mechanism in the uncertainty relationship of inflation inflation. Definite function.
【作者单位】：成都信息工程学院统计学院;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971055) 国家社科基金重大资助项目(10ZD&006) 国家统计局统计信息技术与数据挖掘重点开放实验室开放课题(2011Z03) 成都信息工程学院人才引进科研基金资助项目(KYTZ201116);成都信息工程学院中青年学术带头人科研项目(J201122)
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0;F224

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