汇率、汇率制度与对外直接投资——基于广义脉冲响应函数法的国际比较

发布时间：2018-07-14 08:22

【摘要】：基于1982-2010年中国、日本、韩国、新加坡和中国香港的数据,本文研究了汇率水平及其不确定性对企业海外投资(OFDI)的短期冲击和长期影响。结果表明:汇率对发达经济体OFDI的冲击要大于发展中经济体;本币升值有利于母国对外直接投资的结论只在长期内,对实行自由浮动汇率的经济体,对实行汇率制度的经济体都没有发现支持该论断的证据;汇率不确定性对OFDI的冲击作用随时间逐渐减弱的趋势在各经济体中差异明显;从汇率对OFDI作用的时滞性来看,参考篮子货币汇率制度下时滞最小,钉住汇率制度下最长,而浮动汇率制度下的时滞性介于两者之间。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong from 1982 to 2010, this paper studies the short-term impact and long-term impact of exchange rate level and its uncertainty on foreign investment (OFDI). The results show that the impact of exchange rate on OFDI in developed economies is greater than that in developing economies, and the conclusion that the appreciation of local currencies is beneficial to OFDI of home countries is only in the long run, and only for those economies with free floating exchange rates. There is no evidence to support this conclusion in the economies implementing the exchange rate regime; the trend that the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on OFDI gradually weakens over time is obviously different in different economies; from the point of view of the time-lag of the exchange rate effect on OFDI, With reference to the basket exchange rate system, the delay is the least, the pegged exchange rate system is the longest, and the time lag under floating exchange rate system is between the two.
【作者单位】：宁波大学现代国际贸易战略研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“三次产业动态协同发展机制研究”(批准号:10ZD&027) 浙江省自然科学基金项目“外资进入时间、节奏与技术溢出效应的动态变化路径:基于浙江省的实证研究”(编号:Y6110737)的阶段性研究成果宁波大学学科项目“人民币汇率波动背景下中国对外贸易与企业‘走出去’的关系研究” 宁波大学人才引进项目“后经济危机时期中国企业‘走出去’战略研究”的资助
【分类号】：F224;F831.6

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