中国对东盟新四国直接投资研究

发布时间：2018-07-29 11:50

【摘要】：东盟新四国(以下简称新四国)是指东南亚十国中最后加入东盟的四个新成员国,即柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸和越南,亦称CLMV国家。其中,柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸属世界最不发达国家。由于历史原因,特别是政治局势长期动荡的影响,新四国经济发展水平低,基础设施滞后,在吸引外国直接投资方面一直处于不利地位。近年来,随着美国“重返东南亚”战略的推进和印度“东向政策”的实施,新四国以其重要的地缘政治、逐渐开放的经济政策、丰富的自然资源、廉价的劳动力日益受到国际资本的关注,成为各大国角逐的焦点区域。随着中国—东盟自由贸易区建设进程的加快和大湄公河次区域合作等的推进,我国与新四国的交往日益频繁,经济合作快速推进,新四国在我国对外直接投资和对东盟直接投资中的地位日益提高,我国成为新四国最重要的直接投资来源国之一。就我国而言,无论是具有较强竞争优势的大型中央企业,还是不具备所有权优势和内部化优势但却拥有为小规模市场服务能力和小规模生产技术的中小企业,都能在新四国找到自己发展的“广阔天地”。我国对新四国的直接投资,在获取国内稀缺战略资源、转移过剩产能、开拓境外市场、确保国家经济安全、西南边疆安全等方面,发挥了积极的作用。进一步加强对新四国的直接投资,既符合企业经济利益,也关乎我国的国家战略。本文采用理论分析与实际分析相结合、历史分析和现状分析相结合、国际关系分析与计量分析相结合的方法,对新四国引进外资的发展历程和中国对新四国直接投资的发展历程进行了总结回顾,对新四国直接投资的现状和特点进行了归纳总结,就中国对新四国和老六国直接投资的特点和绩效进行了比较研究,就影响中国对新四国直接投资的推动因素和风险因素进行了全面分析,并在此基础上提出了有针对性的政策建议。这对于细化东盟问题的研究对象,验证发展中国家对外直接投资理论在高风险国家的适用性,补充和丰富现有的研究成果,具有重要的理论意义；同时,本研究不仅有助于客观而深入地认识我国与新四国的经贸关系,正确处理双边经贸关系中的矛盾和摩擦,推动双边经贸关系进一步发展,而且能为我国企业特别是中小企业开拓新四国市场提供具体的帮助,为各级政府制定和调整对外投资政策、实施走出去战略提供有益的参考,具有较强的现实意义。本文的研究内容主要围绕以下几方面展开：是对外直接投资理论综述。通过系统地梳理国际直接投资基本理论,依次对马克思主义资本输出理论、发达国家国际直接投资理论、发展中国家国际直接投资理论以及20世纪90年代以来国际直接投资理论的新发展进行了归纳、介绍和评价。二是中国对新四国直接投资的发展。首先,回顾了新四国的引资进程,分析了各国引进外国直接投资的来源国分布和产业分布；其次,总结回顾了中国对新四国直接投资的发展历程和现状,归纳了中国对新四国直接投资的特点。三是中国对新四国直接投资的推动因素分析。首先,基于投资国的宏观战略,分析了中国对新四国直接投资的必然性；其次,基于跨国企业的比较优势,分析了中国对新四国直接投资的可行性；再次,基于双边关系的推动因素,分析了中国对新四国直接投资快速发展的有利基础；最后,基于东道国的投资环境,分析了中国对新四国直接投资发展的区位优势。四是中国对新四国直接投资的绩效分析。通过指标选取、模型构建、实证检验和结果分析,重点研究了中国对新四国直接投资绩效中的贸易效应,并与中国对东盟老六国的投资绩效进行了比较分析。五是中国对新四国直接投资的风险分析。分别从东道国政治风险、经济风险、经营风险三个方面,分析了中国对新四国直接投资中存在的风险因素。六是推动中国企业对新四国直接投资的对策和措施。首先,从加强政策引导、强化政策服务、深化双边合作三个方面,就政府层面的宏观政策措施提出了具体建议；其次,从目标定位、产业选择、进入模式、风险防范四个方面,就企业进一步加大对新四国的直接投资提出了具体建议。本文的创新性研究主要体现在三个方面：第一,研究视角创新。迄今为止,国内学术界对我国对东盟的直接投资大都把东盟十国作为一个整体来研究。鉴于东盟各国在政治体制、经济发展、社会文化等方面存在巨大差异,本文根据东盟新四国经济发展水平的相似性、与中国在历史地理政治经济上的密切关系、中国对东盟新四国直接投资所具备的亲缘优势、地缘优势等因素,将新四国放在一个次区域内进行研究。第二,建立了“投资国-东道国-双边关系-企业”四位一体的对外直接投资推动因素分析框架,强调双边政治关系中政治互信与双边经济关系中对外援助、对外承包工程等子因素对对外直接投资的推动作用。提出在对类似东盟新四国的高风险国家直接投资中,双边经济关系是中国企业对外直接投资的基础,双边政治关系是中国企业对外直接投资的保障。第三,通过实证对比研究中国对东盟新四国、老六国的直接投资绩效,提出中国对两类国家的直接投资都是贸易创造型投资,对新四国直接投资的进出口创造效应均高于对老六国的直接投资。本文主要存在以下两方面不足之处：首先,新四国均属最不发达国家,信息化水平低,受世界关注的程度不高,文献资料匮乏,一些研究数据的采集比较困难,在很大程度上影响了本文对某些问题的深入分析。其次,因篇幅所限,本文对中国对新四国直接投资的典型案例和重要地区投资主体(如云南、广西)没有进一步展开深入的分析。对此,笔者将在以后的研究中加以改进和完善。
[Abstract]:The new four countries of ASEAN (hereinafter referred to as the new four countries) refer to the four new ASEAN member countries of the ten Southeast Asian countries, namely Kampuchea, Laos, Burma and Vietnam, also known as the CLMV countries. Among them, Kampuchea, Laos and Burma are the world's least developed countries. For historical reasons, they are the influence of the political situation for a long time, and the economic development of the new four countries. In recent years, with the promotion of the "return to Southeast Asia" strategy and the implementation of the "East Policy" of India, the new four countries, with their important geopolitics, gradually open economic policies, rich natural resources and cheap labor force in recent years. The focus of interregional capital has become the focus of competition among major powers.
With the acceleration of the construction process of China ASEAN Free Trade Area and the promotion of the Greater Mekong Subregion Cooperation, our country and the new four countries have become more and more frequent, and the economic cooperation is advancing rapidly. The new four countries have increased their position in the direct investment of China and the direct investment in ASEAN. China has become the most important direct investment in the new four countries. One of the source countries, as far as China is concerned, whether a large central enterprise with a strong competitive advantage, or a small and medium-sized enterprise with a small market service and small scale production technology, can find a "broad space" for its own development in the new four countries. Investment has played an active role in obtaining domestic scarce strategic resources, transferring excess capacity, opening up foreign markets, ensuring national economic security and the security of the southwest frontier. Further strengthening direct investment to the new four countries is in line with the economic interests of the enterprises and the national strategy of our country.
In this paper, a combination of theoretical analysis and practical analysis, a combination of historical analysis and current situation analysis, and a combination of international relations analysis and measurement analysis, the development course of the new four countries' introduction of foreign capital and the development process of China's direct investment in the new four countries are reviewed, and the status and characteristics of the new four countries' direct investment are carried out. This paper makes a comparative study on the characteristics and performance of China's direct investment in the new four countries and the old six countries, and makes a comprehensive analysis of the factors and risk factors affecting China's direct investment in the new four countries, and puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions on this basis. The applicability of the theory of Chinese foreign direct investment in high risk countries, supplementing and enriching existing research results, is of great theoretical significance. At the same time, this study not only helps to understand the economic and trade relations between China and the new four countries objectively and deeply, and correctly deal with the contradictions and frictions in bilateral economic and trade relations, and promote bilateral economic and trade relations. It is of great practical significance to provide useful reference for governments at all levels to formulate and adjust foreign investment policies and to implement the strategy of going out.
This paper focuses on the following aspects: a summary of the theory of foreign direct investment. Through a systematic review of the basic theories of international direct investment, the theory of Marx's capital output, the theory of international direct investment in developed countries, the international direct investment theory of developing countries, and the international direct investment since 1990s The new development of investment theory is summarized, introduced and evaluated.
The two is the development of China's direct investment to the new four countries. First, it reviews the process of introducing capital in the new four countries, analyzes the distribution and industrial distribution of the source countries of countries introducing foreign direct investment. Secondly, it summarizes the development process and present situation of China's direct investment in the new four countries, and summarizes the characteristics of China's direct investment to the new four countries.
The three is the analysis of China's impetus to the direct investment of the new four countries. First, based on the macro strategy of the investment countries, the inevitability of China's direct investment to the new four countries is analyzed. Secondly, based on the comparative advantages of the multinational enterprises, the feasibility of China's direct investment to the new four countries is analyzed. The country has a favorable basis for the rapid development of the new four countries' direct investment, and finally, based on the investment environment of the host country, the regional advantages of China's direct investment in the new four countries are analyzed.
The four is the performance analysis of China's direct investment in the new four countries. Through the index selection, model construction, empirical test and result analysis, the trade effect of China's direct investment performance on the new four countries is focused on, and the investment performance of the old six countries in ASEAN is compared with China.
The five is the risk analysis of China's direct investment in the new four countries. From the three aspects of the host country's political risk, economic risk and business risk, the risk factors of China's direct investment in the new four countries are analyzed.
The six is the countermeasures and measures to promote the direct investment of Chinese enterprises to the new four countries. First, from the three aspects of strengthening policy guidance, strengthening policy service and deepening bilateral cooperation, we put forward specific suggestions on macro policy measures at the level of government. Secondly, from the target orientation, industry selection, entry mode and risk prevention in four aspects, the enterprise is further developed. Specific proposals were put forward to increase direct investment in the new four countries.
The innovative research of this paper is mainly embodied in three aspects:
First, research perspective innovation. So far, most of China's direct investment in China to ASEAN has been studied by the ten countries of ASEAN as a whole. In view of the great differences in the political system, economic development, social culture and other aspects of ASEAN countries, this article is based on the similarity of the economic development level of the new ASEAN countries and China in the history. The close relationship between geography, politics and economy, the relative advantages and geographical advantages of China's direct investment in the new four countries of ASEAN, and so on, put the new four countries in a subregion to study.
Second, we set up a framework for the factor analysis of foreign direct investment in the "investment country - the host country - bilateral relationship - enterprise", emphasizing the role of the sub factors such as the political mutual trust and bilateral economic relations in bilateral political relations, the foreign contracting projects and other sub factors on foreign direct investment. In the direct investment of high risk countries, bilateral economic relations are the basis of the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises, and bilateral political relations are the guarantee of the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises.
Third, through a comparative study of the direct investment performance of China to the new Four ASEAN countries and the old six countries, the direct investment of China to the two types of countries is a trade creation investment, and the creative effect on the import and export of the direct investment of the new four countries is higher than the direct investment to the old six countries.
This article mainly exists the following two shortcomings: first, the new four countries belong to the least developed countries, the level of information is low, the degree of attention to the world is not high, the literature is scarce and the collection of some research data is difficult, which greatly affects the in-depth analysis of some questions in this paper. Secondly, the text is limited to the length of this article. The typical cases of direct investment in the new four countries and the investment subjects in important areas (such as Yunnan, Guangxi) have not been further analyzed. The author will improve and improve it in the future research.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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