人民币外升内贬现象研究

发布时间：2018-07-30 07:14

【摘要】：自2005年汇改以来，人民币多次出现对外升值和对内贬值并存的现象，使人民币的内外价值走向出现差异，并不断扩大。本文用汇率和国内各类价格分别表示人民币对外购买力和对内购买力水平。以国内各类价格和汇率之间的传递效应角度，从理论分析和实证分析两方面对这一新货币现象进行讨论。对人民币外升内贬现象的研究，不但有助于理解物价和汇率波动对宏观经济的影响，而且对相应货币政策的决策和实践具有参考价值。另外，如何选择适当的汇率制度对我国实现反通胀目标和宏观经济稳定健康的发展具有重要的理论探索意义和政策参考作用。本文首先介绍了国内外学者关于人民币对外升值和对内贬值现象的相关研究成果；其次，从“购买力平价”代表的传统理论、汇率波动对物价的新传递理论以及汇率对物价变动的影响渠道三个方面，对汇率和物价之间的理论关系进行了论述；第三，分析了人民币汇率制度的历史变迁、人民币汇率的现状、国内物价的现状，，同时对汇率与物价之间趋势做了对比分析；第四，从理论上分析出现外升内贬的原因，发现这是巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应、国内外双失衡、我国涉外经济不合理所造成的结果。第五，利用2005年7月至2013年12月的月度数据，对汇率和物价的格兰杰因果关系做了研究，然后选取进口物价指数（IPI）、生产者物价指数（PPI）和消费者物价指数（CPI）作为国内物价的衡量指标，综合人民币汇率、供给因素、需求因素、货币供应量四个影响因素，建立VAR模型、脉冲响应、方差分解、协整分析和误差修正模型，针对人民币汇率对国内物价的影响进行了实证分析。最后，结合实证分析结果，提出我国需进一步加强汇率弹性，逐步推进人民币国际化，中长期内扩大内需以维持中国经济内外均衡，合理调整外汇储备结构和对外贸易政策，并继续实施稳健的货币政策等的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the external appreciation and internal depreciation of the RMB have appeared for many times, which makes the internal and external value of RMB appear the difference, and expand continuously. The foreign purchasing power and domestic purchasing power of RMB are expressed by exchange rate and domestic price respectively. From the point of view of the transfer effect between various kinds of domestic prices and exchange rates, this new currency phenomenon is discussed from two aspects: theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. The study of the internal and external depreciation of RMB is not only helpful to understand the influence of price and exchange rate fluctuation on macroeconomic, but also has reference value to the decision and practice of corresponding monetary policy. In addition, how to choose the appropriate exchange rate system is of great theoretical significance and policy reference for China to achieve the goal of anti-inflation and the healthy development of macroeconomic stability. This paper first introduces the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on the phenomenon of RMB appreciation and internal depreciation; secondly, from the "purchasing power parity" representative of the traditional theory, The new transfer theory of exchange rate fluctuation to price and the influence channel of exchange rate on price change are discussed in three aspects: the theoretical relationship between exchange rate and price. Thirdly, the historical change of RMB exchange rate system is analyzed. The present situation of RMB exchange rate, the present situation of domestic price, and the comparative analysis of the trend between exchange rate and price. Fourthly, the paper theoretically analyzes the reason of internal and external devaluation, and finds that this is the Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is out of balance at home and abroad. The result of unreasonable economy concerning foreign affairs in our country. Fifth, using monthly data from July 2005 to December 2013, the Granger causality between exchange rates and prices was studied. Then select the (IPI), producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the measure of domestic price, integrate RMB exchange rate, supply factor, demand factor and money supply factor, and establish VAR model. Impulse response, variance decomposition, cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to analyze the effect of RMB exchange rate on domestic prices. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, it is proposed that China should further strengthen exchange rate elasticity, gradually promote the internationalization of RMB, expand domestic demand in the medium and long term to maintain the internal and external balance of China's economy, and rationally adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves and foreign trade policies. And continue to implement prudent monetary policy and other policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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