中国国际收支余额变化与宏观经济研究
发布时间：2018-10-10 12:22
【摘要】：本文研究了国际收支从10%盈余到基本平衡的过程中,经济中的产出、投资、消费、就业会出现何种变化。本文发现经常账户的盈余会造成投资水平的下降,进而会影响到真实经济增长。如果我国能把国际储备转换成真实对外购买,则消费率和真实经济增长率都会得到提高。另外,人民币真实汇率年调整7%-10%对就业的影响是有限的。
[Abstract]:This paper studies how output, investment, consumption and employment will change in the process of balance of payments from 10% surplus to basic equilibrium. This paper finds that the current account surplus will lead to a decline in investment levels, which in turn will affect real economic growth. If China can convert international reserves into real foreign purchases, the consumption rate and real economic growth rate will increase. In addition, the real RMB exchange rate adjustment of 7-10% of the impact on employment is limited.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院经济所;
【分类号】：F832.6
[Abstract]:This paper studies how output, investment, consumption and employment will change in the process of balance of payments from 10% surplus to basic equilibrium. This paper finds that the current account surplus will lead to a decline in investment levels, which in turn will affect real economic growth. If China can convert international reserves into real foreign purchases, the consumption rate and real economic growth rate will increase. In addition, the real RMB exchange rate adjustment of 7-10% of the impact on employment is limited.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院经济所;
【分类号】：F832.6
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