再论人民币汇率形成机制改革及其若干问题

发布时间：2018-10-15 20:01

【摘要】：人民币汇率形成机制改革的进程突然加速,但是人们对汇改的路径选择缺乏清晰的认识,人民币汇率弹性、资本账户开放以及人民币国际化等问题上争论仍然不断。本文认为,当前人民币汇率改革争论的实质是未能弄清中国经济发展阶段,所谓渐进式改革和激进式改革并非非此即彼相互矛盾的关系。目前人民币汇率改革应介于中度和中深度之间,脱离这个阶段短期要么造成国内经济的失衡,要么导致国内经济均衡下的大衰退。另外,本文也认为汇率弹性并不能以汇率幅度为标准,资本账户自由化也必须按步推进。在人民币国际化问题上,我们对其步骤、问题和模式也作了详细分析,对一些概念上的误区给予说明。我们相信,对诸多问题的清晰认识必将有助于推进人民币汇率形成机制的改革,稳定国内金融体系,保证经济的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has accelerated suddenly, but people lack a clear understanding of the path choice of RMB exchange rate reform, and the RMB exchange rate flexibility, the opening of capital account and the internationalization of RMB are still controversial. This paper holds that the essence of the current RMB exchange rate reform is the failure to make clear the stage of China's economic development, and that the so-called gradual reform and radical reform are not the contradictory relations between one or the other. The current reform of the yuan's exchange rate should be between moderate and moderate depth, leaving the short term either to create imbalances in the domestic economy or to lead to a great recession in the domestic equilibrium. In addition, this paper also thinks that exchange rate elasticity can not be taken as the standard of exchange rate range, and capital account liberalization must be promoted step by step. On the issue of RMB internationalization, we also make a detailed analysis of its steps, problems and models, and explain some conceptual misunderstandings. We believe that a clear understanding of many issues will help promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, stabilize the domestic financial system, and ensure the sustainable development of the economy.
【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院;横滨国立大学经济学部;
【基金】：教育部规划基金项目“人民币国际化的动力机制、时空路径选择——兼论上海国际金融中心建设”(12YJA790029) 上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“上海发展人民币离岸中心的障碍、动力机制与政策策略选择”(2012BJB003) 复旦大学重点学科创新人才培养计划的资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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