中国货币政策的结构效应及其协调性研究

发布时间：2018-12-19 16:23

【摘要】：货币政策是一国反经济周期、实现经济持续稳定增长的重要手段，尤其在金融危机或经济过热时期更是如此。然而，中央银行改变货币供给量、调整利率等政策手段能否顺利地实现既定的宏观经济运行目标却取决于货币政策的传导过程。在此过程中，居民、企业、商业银行和地方政府等微观主体在货币政策信号作用下的最优化行为是否与中央银行的政策目标相一致是影响货币政策传导效应的关键。如果各微观主体行为选择的不一致体现在不同区域、不同产业之间的话，将导致货币政策产生区域效应、产业效应等结构效应，这不仅会降低货币政策的调控效果，还会进一步拉大不同区域、不同产业之间的发展差距。因此，研究货币政策结构效应的微观基础及形成机理具有重要的理论和现实意义！ 为说明中国货币政策结构效应的微观基础及形成机理，从而构建协调发展的中国货币政策操作框架：首先，本文根据货币政策传导理论的发展脉络，对货币政策传导的非对称效应、区域效应、产业效应等进行了理论梳理，在理论分析的基础上，，结合中国实际经济数据，运用LSTVAR模型和SVAR模型对中国货币政策传导的非对称效应、区域效应、产业效应等进行了实证检验，表明中国货币政策存在结构效应，为研究中国货币政策结构效应的微观机理奠定了基础；其次，从理论上分析了居民、企业、商业银行、以及地方政府在货币政策传导过程中的微观主体行为，并着重分析了居民的效用最大化、企业的成本最小化、商业银行的利润最大化以及地方政府的社会福利最大化行为等对货币政策结构效应的影响；再次，分别构建了具有消费习惯偏好的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型、具有名义粘性的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型、以及具有金融加速器效应的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型，并运用贝叶斯估计方法与数值模拟技术对中国货币政策的非对称效应、区域效应、以及产业效应的微观机理进行模拟分析，从而在微观层面说明了中国货币政策结构效应的形成原因；最后，根据实证检验结论和模拟分析结果，从降低居民消费习惯偏好、降低企业投资粘性、推进金融市场化改革、推进政府财税体制改革等微观层面提出了政策建议，同时，也提出了促进中国经济协调发展的宏观调控改革措施，如保持货币政策定力、采用平滑微调政策、实施差别化货币政策、以及加强货币政策与财政政策的协调配套等。 通过对中国货币政策结构效应的微观基础及协调性政策的研究，得到如下创新性的结论。如居民消费习惯偏好过高是导致中国货币政策非对称效应的主要原因；地方政府投资冲动是导致中国货币政策区域效应的重要原因；企业投资粘性则是导致中国货币政策产业效应的重要原因。并提出了“企业投资粘性”的概念，将“粘性”理论扩展到投资领域，分析了企业投资粘性的形成机理和治理对策。在进行宏观调控体系优化设计时，引入了“货币政策定力”概念，并就该概念进行了计量公式和影响因素等方面的探讨。为中国经济持续协调发展的货币政策操作提供了有益的参考。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important means of the country's anti-economic cycle and the sustained and steady growth of the economy, especially during the financial crisis or the economic overheating period. However, whether the central bank can change the monetary supply amount, adjust the interest rate and other policy means can smoothly realize the established macro-economic operation target depends on the conduction process of the monetary policy. In this process, whether the optimization of the micro-subjects such as the resident, the enterprise, the commercial bank and the local government is consistent with the policy objective of the central bank is the key to the monetary policy transmission effect. If the non-conformity of the various micro-subject behaviors is reflected in different regions and between different industries, it will lead to the structural effects such as regional effect and industrial effect of the monetary policy, which not only can reduce the regulation effect of the monetary policy, but also further widen the different regions, The development gap between different industries. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the micro-base and formation mechanism of the monetary policy structure effect. In order to explain the micro-base and formation mechanism of China's monetary policy structure effect, it is necessary to construct a coordinated development China's monetary policy operation framework: first, this paper based on the development of the monetary policy conduction theory, the asymmetric effect of the conduction of monetary policy, the regional effect Based on the theoretical analysis, the asymmetric effect, regional effect and industrial effect of China's monetary policy transmission have been tested by means of the LSTVAR model and the SVAR model based on the theoretical analysis. The results show that China's monetary policy has a structural effect, which lays a foundation for studying the micro-mechanism of the structure effect of the monetary policy in China. In order to maximize the utility of the residents, minimize the cost of the enterprise, the maximum profit of the commercial bank and the social welfare of the local government, the effect of the monetary policy on the structure of the monetary policy is analyzed. On the other hand, a new Keynesian DSGE model with consumption habit preference, a new Keynesian DSGE model with nominal viscosity, and a new Keynesian DSGE model with financial accelerator effect are built. In this paper, the asymmetric effect, regional effect and the micro-mechanism of the industrial effect of China's monetary policy are simulated and analyzed by using the Bayesian estimation method and the numerical simulation technology. Then, according to the results of the empirical test and the simulation analysis, the policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of reducing the consumer's habit preference, reducing the investment viscosity of the enterprise, promoting the reform of the financial market, and promoting the reform of the government's fiscal and taxation system. At the same time, the macro-control reform measures to promote the development of China's economy are also put forward, such as maintaining the fixed force of the monetary policy, adopting the smooth fine adjustment policy, implementing the differential monetary policy, and strengthening the coordination of the monetary policy and the fiscal policy Through the study of the micro-base and coordination policy of the structure effect of the monetary policy in China, the following innovations are obtained: The conclusion that, for example, the high preference of the consumption habits is the main cause of the asymmetric effect of the monetary policy in China, the investment impulse of the local government is an important reason leading to the regional effect of the monetary policy in China, and the viscosity of the investment in the enterprise is the result of the industrial effect of the monetary policy in China. For the reason, and put forward the concept of the 鈥渃orporate investment viscosity鈥

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