中国影子银行体系的双重效应与治理

发布时间：2019-04-01 12:46

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危机的爆发使全球金融体系的稳定性和安全性受到了严重破坏,影子银行被认为是此次危机爆发的主要推手因而受到了各界的广泛关注,对影子银行的风险性和监管问题成为了各监管当局讨论的热点议题。虽然此次金融危机对中国的冲击较小,但是也刺激了中国影子银行体系及业务的快速发展。近几年来,中国的影子银行呈现爆发式增长,在发展的过程中对补充以商业银行为主的传统金融体系、丰富居民投资渠道、活跃实体经济都存在积极的影响。但是由于中国的经济金融环境具有独特性,中国的影子银行在表现形式、运行机制等方面都与西方发达国家存在很大的不同,随着中国影子银行体系的机构和业务越来越复杂,隐藏的风险也开始逐渐公开化和表面化,引起了国内外的多方担忧。在这样的环境下,有必要对中国影子银行体系的双重效应进行探究,合理有效引导积极效应的发挥,并对可能产生的消极影响提出相应的治理建议。本文遵循理论基础、现状、效应和治理的思路,运用数据、图表和实证分析等方法进行研究。首先对影子银行的相关理论进行梳理,主要包括国内外研究综述及其一般性概念、特征和作用机理等；其次,介绍了中国影子银行体系的现状,从产生原因、特征、表现形式等方面对中国影子银行的成因、性质和规模进行全面描述,同时介绍了中国目前的金融监管现状和近期影子银行监管政策以及存在的问题；再次,采用理论和实证相结合的方式对中国影子银行体系的双重效应进行具体的分析,从理论的角度阐述了中国影子银行体系的积极效应和消极效应,并根据理论分析的结果建立VAR模型分析影子银行体系对中国的经济发展、货币政策有效性和金融稳定性的影响；最后,根据以上的现状阐述和效应分析对中国影子银行体系提出具有可行性和有效性的治理建议。通过本文的研究发现中国影子银行体系是把“双刃剑”,一方面可以促进经济发展、完善金融体系建设、推动利率市场化的进程,另一方面又会削弱货币政策效果、威胁传统商业银行、加剧流动性风险和使信贷过度膨胀。实证研究结果表明影子银行体系对经济增长具有一定的正效应,同时对货币政策的有效性和金融稳定性有负向作用,进一步证明了中国影子银行体系存在双重效应。鉴于此,本文提出了六个政策建议,包括形成治理理念、完善金融监管协调机制、加强影子银行体系的风险防控、推进基础配套机制建设、健全法律体系和推动金融体制改革,希望通过加强治理来引导中国影子银行体系的健康发展。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has seriously undermined the stability and safety of the global financial system, and shadow banking is considered to be the main driver of the outbreak of the crisis, so it has received extensive attention from all walks of life. The risk and regulation of shadow banking has become a hot topic discussed by various regulatory authorities. Although the impact of the financial crisis on China is relatively small, but also stimulated the rapid development of China's shadow banking system and business. In recent years, China's shadow banking has shown explosive growth. In the process of development, it has a positive impact on supplementing the traditional financial system dominated by commercial banks, enriching the channels of residents' investment, and activating the real economy. However, due to the uniqueness of China's economic and financial environment, China's shadow banking is very different from western developed countries in its form of expression and operating mechanism. As the institutions and operations of China's shadow banking system become more and more complex, Hidden risks also began to gradually open and surface, causing many worries at home and abroad. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to probe into the double effects of China's shadow banking system, reasonably and effectively guide the development of positive effects, and put forward corresponding governance suggestions for possible negative effects. This paper follows the theoretical basis, current situation, effects and governance ideas, using data, charts and empirical analysis methods to carry on the research. Firstly, the related theories of shadow banking are combed, mainly including domestic and foreign research review and its general concept, characteristics and mechanism of action, etc. Secondly, this paper introduces the present situation of China's shadow banking system, and comprehensively describes the causes, nature and scale of China's shadow banking from the aspects of the causes, characteristics, forms of expression and so on. At the same time, it introduces the current situation of financial supervision in China, the recent shadow banking regulatory policy and the existing problems. Thirdly, the double effects of China's shadow banking system are analyzed by combining theoretical and empirical methods, and the positive and negative effects of China's shadow banking system are expounded from the theoretical point of view. According to the results of theoretical analysis, a VAR model is established to analyze the impact of shadow banking system on China's economic development, monetary policy effectiveness and financial stability. Finally, according to the present situation and effect analysis, this paper puts forward some feasible and effective governance suggestions for China's shadow banking system. Through the research of this paper, we find that the shadow banking system of China is a double-edged sword, on the one hand, it can promote economic development, perfect the construction of financial system, promote the process of interest rate marketization, on the other hand, it will weaken the effect of monetary policy. Threatening traditional commercial banks, exacerbating liquidity risks and overinflating credit. The empirical results show that the shadow banking system has a certain positive effect on economic growth, and has a negative effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy and financial stability, which further proves the existence of double effects in China's shadow banking system. In view of this, this paper puts forward six policy suggestions, including forming governance concept, perfecting financial supervision and coordination mechanism, strengthening risk prevention and control of shadow banking system, promoting the construction of basic supporting mechanism, perfecting the legal system and promoting the reform of financial system. Hope to strengthen governance to guide the healthy development of China's shadow banking system.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3

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