人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 04:01

本文关键词：人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡关系研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文在汇率的价格传递理论、弹性论的基础上,分析汇率对贸易传递效应的影响因素,对人民币汇率与中美贸易收支关系进行实证研究。实证结果表明2008年金融危机之前,人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡没有直接关系,并不能将汇率视作造成中美贸易失衡的原因;金融危机之后,人民币汇率对中美贸易影响呈现微弱的“倒J曲线效应”,即初期汇率对贸易收支并没有明显的抑制关系,只是近期人民币汇率才开始显现对双边贸易的调节作用。实证结果还表明,“收入效应”对贸易的影响远大于“汇率效应”,人民币汇率对中美贸易影响是一个动态过程,人民币汇率不是造成中美贸易失衡的原因。在实证分析的基础上,本文提出中国应放下外界指责人民币汇率的包袱,保证人民币“汇改”的相对独立性,抓住历史机遇引入人民币对篮子货币的宽幅浮动机制,更大程度上让市场决定汇率水平,使得人民币汇率更好地反映出外汇市场的供给与需求。而针对中美贸易失衡问题,两国应充分利用好G2、BIT等双边对话平台,正确认识两国贸易问题,强调以合作方式化解矛盾;同时我国应坚持“以开放促改革”总体思路下继续推进“一带一路”国家战略的实施,降低对美外贸依存度,增强在国际社会的话语权,实现长远发展。
[Abstract]:The transfer theory in the price of the exchange rate, based on the theory of elasticity, analysis of the factors affecting the transfer effect of exchange rate on trade, empirical research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and trade balance. The empirical results show that before the 2008 financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate and Sino US trade imbalance is not directly related to, and can not be regarded as the cause of Sino US trade imbalance rate; after the financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate impact on Sino US trade showed a weak "inverted J curve effect, i.e. the initial exchange rate on trade balance did not inhibit obviously, but the RMB exchange rate began to show moderating effect on bilateral trade. The empirical results also show that the effect of" income effect "of trade is far greater than the" the exchange rate effect, the RMB exchange rate impact on Sino US trade is a dynamic process, the RMB exchange rate is not caused by the Sino US trade imbalance Reason. On the basis of empirical analysis, this paper Chinese accused the RMB exchange rate should put down the burden, to ensure that the RMB "relative independence reform", seize the historical opportunity of wide introduction of RMB currency basket floating mechanism, more let the market determine the exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate better reflect supply and the demand of foreign exchange market. And aiming at the problems of Sino US trade imbalance, the two countries should make good use of G2, BIT and other bilateral dialogue platform, a correct understanding of the trade issues between the two countries, emphasizing the cooperation way to resolve contradictions; at the same time, China should insist on the implementation of "Yikaifangcu reform general idea of" continue to promote the "The Belt and Road" national strategy. To reduce US dependence on foreign trade, strengthen the voice of the international community, to achieve long-term development.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F742

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