国际贸易综合改革试点下义乌进出口贸易发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 22:30

本文关键词：国际贸易综合改革试点下义乌进出口贸易发展研究　出处：《浙江理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为适应国际格局重大变化的迫切要求，满足我国深化贸易改革的客观需要，我国在义乌设立国际贸易综合改革试点（以下简称“义乌试点”）。选择国际贸易综合改革试点下义乌进出口贸易发展的进行研究，分析由政策优势转化为促进外贸持续快速增长的效果，能为义乌进出口贸易在“义乌试点”下寻找突破点提供依据和建议。本文首先通过对国家综合改革试点、绩效评价等相关文献以及相关理论进行整理和分析。在此基础上，运用“理论分析动因分析现状分析评价分析”的分析步骤对“义乌试点”下进出口贸易的发展情况进行了分析。先研究“义乌试点”特点以及经济学依据，然后对“义乌试点”设立的动因及进展进行了分析，之后分析了“义乌试点”下进出口贸易的发展现状以及发展趋势，通过采用时间序列分析对义乌·中国小商品出口价格指数进行实证分析，分析义乌近年来出口发展状况。为了进一步分析“义乌试点”设立对义乌进出口贸易发展的影响，建立绩效评价指标体系。最后文章进行总结，提出对策建议。本文的主要研究结论如下：（1）“义乌试点”的建立既符合我国贸易发展现状，，也是深化改革的要求；选择义乌作为试点即因为义乌进出口贸易的代表性，也因为义乌存在试点设立的基础。（2）从时间序列分析结果看，场内价格指数受宏观环境影响比出口价格指数小，反映在供给需求关系上，义乌进出口贸易需求具有波动性，竞争力不够。（3）实证结果表明，国内需求与国际需求均存在以年为单位周期性，但是二者的淡季旺季并不一致。并且在周期内，国内需求月度波动趋向于越来越小，而国际需求月度波动趋向于越来越大。（4）根据评价指标体系结果表明，“义乌试点”的政策效果较为明显，在建立之初对义乌进出口贸易发展刺激强劲，近期带动作用趋于平缓。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the urgent needs of the major changes in the international pattern, to meet the objective needs of deepening China's trade reform. China has set up an international trade comprehensive reform pilot in Yiwu (hereinafter referred to as "Yiwu pilot"). Choose the development of import and export trade of Yiwu under the comprehensive reform of international trade. This paper analyzes the effect of transforming the policy advantage into promoting the sustained and rapid growth of foreign trade, which can provide the basis and suggestions for the Yiwu import and export trade to find a breakthrough point under the "Yiwu pilot". First of all, through the comprehensive reform of the national pilot, performance evaluation and other related literature and related theories to collate and analyze. On this basis. This paper analyzes the development of import and export trade under "Yiwu pilot" by using the analytical steps of "theoretical analysis, motivation analysis, current situation analysis and evaluation and analysis". Firstly, it studies the characteristics of "Yiwu pilot" and the economic basis. Then it analyzes the reasons and progress of the establishment of the "Yiwu pilot", and then analyzes the current situation and development trend of the import and export trade under the "Yiwu pilot". Through the use of time series analysis of Yiwu 路China small commodity export price index empirical analysis. In order to further analyze the impact of the establishment of "Yiwu pilot" on the development of import and export trade in Yiwu, establish the performance evaluation index system. The countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the establishment of the "Yiwu pilot" is not only in line with the current situation of China's trade development, but also the requirement of deepening the reform; Yiwu is chosen as a pilot because of the representativeness of import and export trade in Yiwu, and because there is a basis for the establishment of the pilot. 2) from the result of time series analysis, the price index in the field is less affected by macro environment than that by export price index, which is reflected in the supply-demand relationship. The demand for import and export trade in Yiwu is fluctuating and its competitiveness is not enough. The empirical results show that domestic demand and international demand have annual periodicity, but their off-season peak season is not the same. And in the cycle, the monthly fluctuation of domestic demand tends to be smaller and smaller. International demand tends to fluctuate more and more monthly. 4) according to the evaluation index system, the policy effect of "Yiwu pilot" is obvious, and the development of import and export trade in Yiwu is strongly stimulated at the beginning of its establishment, and the driving effect tends to be gentle in the near future.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6

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