基于CGTM的中国主要木质林产品进出口贸易预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 15:19

本文关键词：基于CGTM的中国主要木质林产品进出口贸易预测研究　出处：《北京林业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：木质林产品对于全球各国的发展都有不可替代的作用,而每个国家木质林产品供需与进出口贸易更是深刻地影响着国家的经济变化与社会稳定。本文通过描述近年来国内森林资源和主要木质林产品进出口贸易现状及变化趋势,估计木质林产品的供给和需求方程的参数、以此构建CGTM模型来预测2013-2030年中国木质林产品供需及进出口贸易变化趋势,并利用该模型对关税和非关税贸易政策的影响进行情景模拟分析,为中国的木质林产品市场和林业产业的发展提供参考依据。结果显示,中国主要木质林产品进出口贸易在2013-2030年依然呈现出较快的增长,具体表现为原木、锯材等原料性产品大量进口,胶合板的大量出口,但是进口增长速度有下降的趋势。国内木材供给能力有所提高,中国主要木质林产品供给来源问题趋于好转。但是,国内木材的供给结构可能无法满足需求,对外依存度依然较高。本文通过政策模拟4个政策假设,得出取消关税壁垒对中国木材贸易有正向影响,且幅度较大；在取消关税壁垒的情况下,限制原木出口政策对中国木材贸易仍有正向影响,但是对取消关税壁垒有一定的抑制作用,影响幅度较为明显；取消关税壁垒情景下,技术性壁垒对中国木材贸易仍呈现正向影响,但是对取消关税政策有抑制,影响幅度没有限制原木出口明显；森林认证的继续推行使得中国原木、锯材和木浆的进口贸易变化趋于稳定,但是对于中国胶合板贸易变化比较动荡,不过还是起到一定的抵消作用。结合上述分析得出,对中国林产品贸易的政策建议：(1)完善林产品进出口贸易政策,完善我国林产品相关技术标准和规范,建立本国森林认证体系与标准以及加强沟通合作和政府引导获得木材供给的新渠道;(2)完善林业产业的财政补贴政策以及林产品加工技术创新和改进。
[Abstract]:Wood forest products play an irreplaceable role in the development of countries all over the world. The supply and demand of woody forest products and import and export trade in each country have a profound impact on the economic changes and social stability of the country. This paper describes the current situation of import and export trade of forest resources and main wood forest products in China in recent years. Trends. The parameters of supply and demand equation of woody forest products were estimated, and the CGTM model was constructed to predict the change trend of supply and demand and import and export trade of wood forest products in China from 2013 to 2030. The model is used to simulate the impact of tariff and non-tariff trade policies to provide a reference for the market of wood forest products and the development of forestry industry in China. The import and export trade of China's main woody forest products continued to show a rapid growth in 2013-2030, which was manifested in the massive import of raw materials such as logs, sawwood and the export of plywood. However, the import growth rate has a downward trend. The domestic timber supply capacity has improved, and the supply source of China's main wood forest products tends to improve. However, the domestic timber supply structure may not be able to meet the demand. Through the policy simulation of four policy assumptions, the removal of tariff barriers has a positive impact on China's timber trade, and the extent is large; In the case of removing tariff barriers, the policy of restricting the export of logs still has a positive effect on China's timber trade, but it has a certain restraining effect on the removal of tariff barriers, and the extent of influence is obvious. Under the scenario of removing tariff barriers, TBT still has a positive impact on China's timber trade, but it has a restraining effect on the elimination of tariff policies, and the scope of influence is not obvious to restrict the export of logs. The continued implementation of forest certification has stabilized China's import trade in logs, sawn timber and wood pulp, but has been more volatile for China's plywood trade. According to the above analysis, the policy suggestion on China's forest products trade is proposed to improve the import and export policy of forest products, and to perfect the relevant technical standards and norms of China's forest products. Establishing national forest certification systems and standards and strengthening communication and cooperation and new government channels for access to timber supply; 2) to improve the financial subsidy policy of forestry industry and the innovation and improvement of processing technology of forest products.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6;F426.88

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