中国新西兰自由贸易区的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 21:03

本文关键词：中国新西兰自由贸易区的经济效应研究　出处：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中新FTA是对我国自由贸易区战略的重要实践,是我国自由贸易网络在全球的重要组成部分,开创了中国与发达国家建立FTA的先河。中国和新西兰两国优势产业结构互补性强,经过8年的发展,双边货物贸易和服务贸易进出口总额分别增长3倍和2倍,中国对新西兰的直接投资流量增长了 50倍。本文在综述了自由贸易区相关理论与文献的基础上,结合中新FTA的内容和特点,分析了中新FTA成立以来双边的商品贸易效应、投资效应和基于服务贸易的金融合作与自然人流动。在分析商品贸易效应时,除分析了中新FTA基于HS编码的覆盖率和基于商品结构的竞争优势指数之外,还采用巴拉萨模型,运用进口需求收入弹性指标的变化,对中新FTA成立8年来的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应进行了实证分析。本文运用贸易比重法对巴拉萨效应的回归结果进行进一步的解释说明,并对其产生的原因进行了多方面分析。本文还借助引力模型,选取全球所有发达国家16年的面板数据,说明中国与发达国家间建立FTA对贸易流量有显著的积极作用。中新FTA成立8年以来在投资规模效应方面十分显著,投资领域不断扩大和深化,双边为进一步促进金融服务发展而进行了金融合作。由于新西兰安全的旅游目的地、高质量的留学以及环境等方面的优势带动了双边人口流动。此外,中新FTA的签署还建立了与发达国家FTA谈判的标准,具有示范作用。中国与新西兰签订FTA具有重大意义,本文最后针对中新FTA实施8年来的成就与不足,在中新自贸区升级谈判的背景下,对促进中新FTA双边贸易和投资的发展提出了相应的对策建议。并利用FTA谈判的多米诺骨牌效应,促进中国与其他发达国家建立FTA的进程。
[Abstract]:China-Singapore FTA is an important practice of China's free trade zone strategy and an important part of China's free trade network in the world. China and New Zealand are complementary to each other in their superior industrial structure, which has been developed for 8 years. The total volume of bilateral trade in goods and services has increased by three times and two times respectively, and the direct investment flow from China to New Zealand has increased by 50 times. This paper summarizes the theory and literature of free trade area. Combined with the content and characteristics of Sino-Singapore FTA, this paper analyzes the effects of bilateral trade in goods, investment, financial cooperation based on service trade and the movement of natural persons since the establishment of Sino-Singapore FTA. In addition to analyzing the coverage of FTA based on HS code and the competitive advantage index based on commodity structure, the paper also adopts Barraza model and the change of income elasticity index of import demand. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the trade creation effect and trade transfer effect in the past 8 years since the establishment of the Sino-Singapore FTA. This paper further explains the regression results of the Barraza effect by using the trade proportion method. The causes are analyzed from many aspects. The panel data of all the developed countries in the world for 16 years are selected with the help of gravity model. It shows that the establishment of FTA between China and developed countries has a significant positive effect on the trade flow. Since the establishment of FTA 8 years ago, the investment scale effect has been very remarkable, and the investment field has been expanding and deepening. Bilateral financial cooperation to further promote the development of financial services. Due to New Zealand's safe tourist destination, high quality of study and environmental advantages led to bilateral population mobility. The signing of FTA between China and New Zealand has also established the standard of FTA negotiation with developed countries and has the exemplary function. The signing of FTA between China and New Zealand is of great significance. In the end, aiming at the achievements and shortcomings of the implementation of FTA in China and Singapore over the past 8 years, under the background of the negotiations on upgrading the China-Singapore Free Trade Zone. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the development of bilateral trade and investment between China and New Zealand FTA, and the domino effect of FTA negotiation is used to promote the process of establishing FTA between China and other developed countries.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F756.12

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