劳动力成本变动对我国贸易条件的影响

发布时间：2018-01-11 22:14

本文关键词：劳动力成本变动对我国贸易条件的影响　出处：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国劳动力成本的不断上升,势必影响到外部的需求,而我国贸易条件以及经济增长动力将不可避免的受到影响。在这样的背景下,文章首先对劳动力成本变动对我国贸易条件的影响机制进行了理论分析,然后通过主成分分析法对影响我国劳动力成本的各因素进行比较静态的综合分析。接着,通过构建SVAR模型,着重对我国的劳动力成本变动对我国贸易条件的影响进行了动态分析。一国纯粹的劳动力成本上涨和劳动力成本的下跌,并不会引起国内的生产函数和社会福利曲线发生改变,此时汇率水平的变化幅度和劳动力成本的上涨幅度共同决定着一国的贸易条件和福利水平。在一国的劳动力成本上涨扩大了该国的生产能力时,该国的贸易条件的变化将由劳动力成本、生产规模、汇率的变化共同决定,即受到国内成本冲击、供给冲击和国外需求冲击的共同影响。但是,劳动力素质水平的提升所带来的劳动力成本的上涨,所引起的生产能力的扩张,无论引发贸易条件如何变动,都将提高一国的福利水平。贸易条件影响因素的主成分分析结果表明,相对出口指数和相对劳动力指数对我国贸易条件的变动影响相对显著,是关注我国贸易发展必须同步关注的重要议题。其中正向影响因素为相对出口数量指数、相对出口价值指数、劳动力数量指数,这表明世界市场对我国商品的需求量的增加,对我国贸易条件的改善起到了积极作用。负向影响因素有相对GDP指数、相对资本指数、平均工资指数、世界成本指数,这表明,我国领先于世界的经济发展速度和供给能力恶化了我国的贸易条件,靠出口拉动经济增长的经济模式是不可持续的。考虑到滞后因素的影响,SVAR模型的实证研究结果表明,劳动力成本的变动是影响我国贸易条件的一个重要方面。而劳动力成本变动对我国贸易条件的影响是短期的,并呈现出先恶化然后改善,后期小幅震动趋于平稳的趋势。我国劳动力成本的上涨会推动我国生产力水平的假设条件是成立的。但是,贸易条件的恶化主要是因为供应的冲击高于我国汇率和成本的冲击所致。尽管如此,由于生产力水平的提升,生产可能性曲线扩张带来了我国社会福利的上升。贸易条件是一国重要的经济信息指标,对其他经济因素的变化贡献很大,因此贸易条件的变化是应该受到重视的。在我国贸易条件变化的贡献中,劳动力成本和汇率水平均是重要的影响因素。汇率的变化作为对我国贸易条件变化贡献最大的因素,与我国的贸易条件呈现出动态同向变动的关系。由此可见,我国汇率的升值(h负增长)是我国贸易条件恶化的主要原因。
[Abstract]:With the rising labor costs in China, it will inevitably affect the external demand, and China's terms of trade and economic growth will inevitably be affected. Firstly, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of labor cost change on China's terms of trade. Then through the principal component analysis of the impact of labor costs of China's various factors for comparative static comprehensive analysis. Then, through the construction of SVAR model. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the influence of the change of labor cost on the terms of trade of our country. The rise of labor cost and the decline of labor cost in a country. It will not cause the production function and social welfare curve to change. At this time, the change of exchange rate level and the increase of labor cost jointly determine a country's terms of trade and welfare level. Changes in the terms of trade of the country will be determined by changes in labor costs, production scale, and exchange rates, that is, by the impact of domestic costs, supply shocks and foreign demand shocks. The rise of labor cost and the expansion of productive capacity caused by the improvement of labor quality level, no matter how the terms of trade change. The results of principal component analysis show that the relative export index and the relative labor force index have a relatively significant effect on the change of China's terms of trade. It is an important issue to pay attention to the development of China's trade. The positive factors are the relative export quantity index, the relative export value index and the labor force quantity index. This indicates that the increasing demand for Chinese commodities in the world market has played a positive role in the improvement of China's terms of trade. The negative influence factors are relative GDP index, relative capital index and average wage index. The World cost Index, which shows that China is ahead of the world in terms of economic development and supply capacity, has worsened our terms of trade. The economic model of export-led economic growth is not sustainable. The empirical results of SVAR model show that considering the influence of lag factors. The change of labor cost is an important aspect that affects the terms of trade of our country, and the change of labor cost has a short-term effect on the terms of trade of our country, and presents the deterioration first and then the improvement. The assumption that the increase of labor cost will promote the level of productivity in China is true. The deterioration in the terms of trade was mainly due to supply shocks higher than those of our exchange rates and costs, although this was due to higher productivity levels. The expansion of production possibility curve has brought about the rise of social welfare in our country. Terms of trade is an important economic information index of a country, which contributes a lot to the change of other economic factors. Therefore, the change of terms of trade should be taken seriously. The change of exchange rate, as the most important factor to the change of the terms of trade of our country, has a dynamic and codirectional relationship with the terms of trade of our country. The appreciation of China's exchange rate and negative growth are the main reasons for the deterioration of China's terms of trade.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F249.24;F752.6

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