金融危机后人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡的关系

发布时间：2018-01-14 21:22

本文关键词：金融危机后人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡的关系　出处：《南京大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中美之间持续的贸易不平衡问题多年来都受到全球瞩目。有许多经济学家和政府决策人都认为中国在通过低估人民币汇率的方式,以贸易伙伴的利益为代价维持其居高不下的贸易盈余。自从全球金融危机之后,难以顺利经济复苏的国家也开始渐渐把重心放在了他们与贸易伙伴的经济关系上。美国也对人民币升值施加压力,希望以此来改善贸易状况,推动经济复苏。在这样的背景之下,这篇论文想要检验的就是人民币与中美贸易不平衡的关系是否与理论吻合,升值人民币是否能推动美国的经济复苏。论文通过分析中美贸易不平衡的现状、回顾基本的汇率制度和探讨金融危机之后剧烈的汇率变动来介绍论文研究的背景,其中金融危机之后世界范围内的剧烈汇率变动是论文定题的主要动机之一。通过回顾包括经典汇率理论、当代汇率理论和汇率理论的新发展之内的汇率理论,本文选择了弹性法作为主要的理论模型,为进一步的实证分析建立基础。理论基础的讨论最先围绕汇率、国内收入和国外收入这三大贸易收支的影响因素展开。弹性法进一步解释了汇率和贸易收支的关系,但汇率贬值可以改善贸易收支的前提是马歇尔·勒纳条件得到满足。然而由于J曲线效应的存在,即使马歇尔·勒纳条件满足,汇率贬值和贸易收支的关系刚开始也与理论预测相反,直到经过时滞之后才与理论想温和。论文的实证分析包括两个部分。首先是对马歇尔·勒纳条件的检验。根据对2009年以来的数据计算和分析,得出中国的进出口弹性基本满足马歇尔·勒纳条件的结论。第二部分是以向量自回归(VAR)模型为基础的一系列实证检验。论文首先建立了以中美贸易差额为因变量,人民币实际汇率、中美双方GDP为自变量的回归模型。对这四个变量2009年至2014年的季度数据进行分析,一阶差分后四个数列均通过单位根检验。协整检验发现四个变量之间存在长期稳定的关系。VAR模型建立之后,根据脉冲响应分析发现人民币汇率和贸易差额之间满足J曲线效应。最后方差分解发现中国的GDP比人民币汇率对贸易差额的变动更具有解释力。论文根据实证分析的结果得到了以下结论：首先,中美贸易差额、人民币汇率和两国GDP之间存在长期稳定关系,但是人民币汇率并非影响中美贸易差额的主要原因,而是中国GDP。其次,与美国的贸易对中国GDP的增长影响很大。第三,尽管人民币汇率并非中美贸易不平衡的主要影响因素,却与美国GDP的增长有着正相关关系。据此论文对中美两国经济政策尤其是贸易政策以及人民币汇率改革方面提出了政策建议。论文的不足之处在于对于理论模型的检验只通过中美双边贸易进行,缺乏更全面的样本,数据的选取也存在一定不足,并且选取的计量模型也并不能够全面地反映变量之间的关系。
[Abstract]:The persistent trade imbalance between China and the United States has attracted global attention for years. Many economists and government policymakers believe that China is undervaluing its currency. Maintain its high trade surplus at the expense of trading partners. Since the global financial crisis. Countries that are struggling with a smooth recovery are also starting to focus on their economic relations with their trading partners. The United States is also putting pressure on the yuan to appreciate in hopes of improving trade conditions. Against this backdrop, this paper wants to examine whether the relationship between the renminbi and the trade imbalance between China and the United States is in line with the theory. Whether the appreciation of RMB can promote the economic recovery of the United States. This paper analyzes the current situation of trade imbalance between China and the United States. Review the basic exchange rate system and discuss the drastic exchange rate changes after the financial crisis to introduce the background of the paper. One of the main motivations of the thesis is the drastic exchange rate changes in the world after the financial crisis. Through reviewing the new developed exchange rate theory including classical exchange rate theory, contemporary exchange rate theory and exchange rate theory. In this paper, the elastic method is chosen as the main theoretical model to establish the basis for further empirical analysis. The theoretical basis of the discussion is first around the exchange rate. Domestic income and foreign income are the three main factors influencing trade balance. Elastic method further explains the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. But a depreciation of the exchange rate can improve the balance of trade if the Marshal Lerner condition is met, but because of the J curve effect, even if the Machel Lerner condition is satisfied. The relationship between exchange rate depreciation and trade balance is also at first contrary to theoretical forecasts. The empirical analysis of the paper consists of two parts. The first is the test of the Marshal Lerner condition. The calculation and analysis are based on the data from 2009. The conclusion that China's import and export elasticity basically meets the Marshal Lerner condition. The second part is based on vector autoregressive VARs. A series of empirical tests based on the model. Firstly, the paper establishes the Sino-US trade balance as a dependent variable. The real exchange rate of RMB, the GDP of China and the United States, is the regression model of independent variables. The quarterly data of these four variables from 2009 to 2014 are analyzed. After the first order difference, the four sequence passed the unit root test. The cointegration test found that there was a long-term stable relationship between the four variables. According to the impulse response analysis, it is found that the J-curve effect is satisfied between the RMB exchange rate and the trade balance. The final variance decomposition shows that China's GDP has more explanatory power than the RMB exchange rate on the change of the trade balance. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows:. First. There is a long-term stable relationship between the Sino-US trade balance, RMB exchange rate and GDP, but the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason that affects the Sino-US trade balance, but China's GDP.Second. Trade with the United States has a significant impact on China's GDP growth. Third, although the RMB exchange rate is not a major factor in the trade imbalance between China and the United States. However, there is a positive correlation with the growth of GDP in the United States. Based on this, the paper puts forward policy recommendations on the economic policies of China and the United States, especially on the trade policy and the reform of the RMB exchange rate. The deficiency of the paper lies in its theoretical implications. The model is tested only through bilateral trade between China and the United States. In the absence of more comprehensive samples, there are some deficiencies in the selection of data, and the selected econometric model can not fully reflect the relationship between variables.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7

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