江苏制造业产业结构对出口结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 08:06

本文关键词：江苏制造业产业结构对出口结构的影响研究　出处：《江苏师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：制造业在国民经济发展中占有重要份额,它是社会工业发展最重要的一部分。在新的经济发展阶段,它的根本性作用在社会发展中是不可忽视的。尤其是第三次工业革命的爆发,使得我国制造业的发展发生翻天覆地的变化,制造业的信息化、网络化提升了我国制造业的经济实力。江苏省作为我国的出口贸易大省,制造业的生产和出口占据很大一部分比重,它的生产和出口促进了江苏整体经济的发展。在2008年国际金融危机影响下,外贸依存度较高的江苏经济受到严重影响;但随着国际经济结构的不断调整,未来外贸需求的扩张仍将是江苏经济发展的重要动力,因此分析江苏制造业产业结构与出口结构间的关系对于未来制造业的出口扩张具有重要意义。基于此,本文以江苏省制造业产业结构对出口结构的影响为研究主题。首先,系统梳理了产业结构与出口结构的理论基础,从理论上解释了产业结构与出口结构之间的影响关系;其次,分析目前江苏省制造业的生产与出口发展现状;然后,运用出口贡献度指标、出口-生产弹性系数从静态和动态两个不同的角度分析江苏省制造业内部出口结构与产业结构匹配度较高的行业。选用固定效应模型和面板数据模型实证分析江苏省制造业产业结构对出口结构影响的相关规律,并通过产业结构与出口结构相关系数的历年变化趋势,动态观察2005-2015年江苏制造业出口结构与产业结构联系的密切程度变化。最后,运用区位熵分析方法,计算出江苏省制造业在生产上具有比较优势的行业,测度具有比较优势的制造业出口份额的变化趋势,以验证江苏省制造业的出口是否体现制造业的生产优势。实证结果发现:江苏制造业的产业结构对出口结构存在正向影响关系,并且两者之间的相关程度随着时间的变化有所波动。江苏制造业中对出口贡献有两类显著差异的行业,一类是出口份额大于10%的行业,另一类是出口份额小于10%的行业。其中通用设备制造业、专用设备制造业、纺织服装、鞋、帽制造业是出口结构与产业结构最为匹配的三个产业,出口贡献度以及出口-生产弹性都比较高,属于江苏制造业中具有比较优势的行业,其出口份额的变动反映了生产上的比较优势。因此,运用合理的产业和贸易政策,扩大这些优势产业的发展,创造品牌效应,以优势产业发展带动幼稚产业发展对于促进江苏制造业产业结构和出口结构的优化调整、乃至整个江苏工业经济的发展都具有举足轻重的作用。
[Abstract]:Manufacturing industry plays an important role in the development of national economy. It is the most important part of the development of social industry, and it is in the new stage of economic development. Its fundamental role in social development can not be ignored, especially the outbreak of the third industrial revolution, the development of our manufacturing industry has undergone earth-shaking changes, manufacturing information. Network has enhanced the economic strength of our manufacturing industry. Jiangsu Province, as a large province of export trade in China, manufacturing production and exports account for a large part of the proportion. Its production and export promoted the development of the whole economy of Jiangsu. In 2008, under the influence of the international financial crisis, the economy of Jiangsu with high degree of dependence on foreign trade was seriously affected. However, with the continuous adjustment of the international economic structure, the expansion of foreign trade demand in the future will still be an important driving force for Jiangsu's economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the relationship between the industrial structure and export structure of Jiangsu manufacturing industry for the future export expansion of manufacturing industry. This paper focuses on the impact of manufacturing industry structure on export structure in Jiangsu Province. Firstly, the theoretical basis of industrial structure and export structure is systematically combed. The relationship between industrial structure and export structure is explained theoretically. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of manufacturing and export development in Jiangsu Province. Then, the export contribution index is used. Export-production elasticity coefficient is analyzed from two different angles of static and dynamic. The fixed effect model and panel data model are used to analyze the industries with high matching degree between internal export structure and industrial structure in Jiangsu Province. The related law of the influence of manufacturing industry structure on export structure in Jiangsu province. Through the change trend of the correlation coefficient between industrial structure and export structure, we dynamically observe the close degree of the relationship between the export structure of Jiangsu manufacturing industry and the industrial structure from 2005 to 2015. Finally. By using the method of location entropy, this paper calculates the trend of the manufacturing industry with comparative advantage in Jiangsu province and measures the export share of manufacturing industry with comparative advantage. The empirical results show that the industrial structure of Jiangsu manufacturing industry has a positive impact on the export structure. And the degree of correlation between the two changes with the change of time. Jiangsu manufacturing industry has two types of significant differences in the export contribution industries, one is the export share of more than 10% industries. The other is the industry whose export share is less than 10%, in which general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, textile and clothing, shoes and hats manufacturing are the three industries that most match the export structure and the industrial structure. Export contribution and export-production elasticity are relatively high, belonging to the industry with comparative advantage in Jiangsu manufacturing industry, the change of export share reflects the comparative advantage in production. Use reasonable industry and trade policy, expand the development of these superior industries, create brand effect. It is very important to promote the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure and export structure of Jiangsu manufacturing industry and even the development of the whole industrial economy of Jiangsu with the development of superior industries to promote the development of childish industries.
【学位授予单位】：江苏师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F427;F752.62

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