我国进出口贸易的二氧化碳排放效应实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 06:20

本文关键词： 进出口贸易二氧化碳排放面板平滑转移模型贸易结构　出处：《东北财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,温室气体的大量排放所导致的全球气候变暖引起了世界各国的广泛关注,为改善全球变暖的状况世界各国纷纷给予高度重视并积极采取措施。由于中国经济发展较快,且被称为“世界加工厂”,一些西方国家纷纷将矛头指向中国,要求中国承担大量的碳减排责任。随着我国进出口贸易的迅速增长,2013年我国己成为全球第一大货物贸易国。我国的CO2排放居全球首位,但是其中有将近三分之一是由于出口贸易产生的。所以研究进出口贸易的CO2排放效应对于减少我国CO2排放具有重大意义。根据目前现有文献,本文发现国内对于两者关系的探究大部分集中于估算贸易中含有的碳排放量及运用线性模型从进出口贸易总量或者出口角度考察对外贸易对CO2排放的影响程度,但是鲜有从非线性角度考察进出口贸易的二氧化碳排放效应的实证研究。随着技术进步和体制变化,样本数据间有较大的异质性,线性模型很难满足这一要求,所以本文运用面板平滑转移模型研究了这一问题。本文首先分析了我国CO2排放和进出口贸易的现状,分别从总量情况、行业分析及国际比较三个角度研究了我国CO2排放的目前状况；对进出口贸易从总体规模和贸易结构两方面分析了目前的现状；并从统计角度说明我国CO2排放与对外贸易具有相同的变化趋势。其次从区域角度分为东部、中部和西部,运用线性模型分别分析了各区域进口贸易和出口贸易的二氧化碳排放线性效应,并对其经济意义进行分析。再次对我国总体建立面板平滑转移模型,分别以贸易规模和贸易结构为转移变量,分析了我国进口贸易和出口贸易的二氧化碳排放非线性效应,并分析了估计结果的经济意义。本文的主要结论有：目前我国CO2排放的现状是总量较大,不过人均排放量较低,CO2排放强度较大,显著高于同期世界平均水平,东部CO2排放总量最大；进出口贸易现状是对外贸易总额稳步增长,近年来贸易结构和贸易方式虽然稍有改善,但是以加工贸易为主导的贸易方式仍未改变。在不同区域,进口和出口贸易对CO2排放具有不同影响。东部和中部出口贸易的发展会导致我国CO2排放的增加,进口贸易的发展有助于减少我国CO2排放,而西部区域的进口和出口对CO2排放均没有显著影响。进出口贸易的CO2排放非线性效应显著,以贸易规模为转移变量时,出口会导致国内CO2排放的增加,但是随着贸易规模的扩张,出口比重对CO2排放的影响减弱；进口贸易有助于降低我国CO2排放,随着贸易规模的扩张,进口贸易的CO2减排效应逐渐增大。以贸易结构为转移变量时,贸易结构不合理使得出口贸易的CO2排放非线性效应显著大于线性效应的影响,所以调整贸易结构对于减少我国CO2排放具有重要作用；进口贸易的线性和非线性效应均显示进口有利于减少我国CO2排放。根据本文的估计结果,提出了以下政策建议：优化产业结构,推进低碳贸易产业的发展；推进技术进步,提高能源利用效率并研发新能源；对不同的区域实行不同的贸易政策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a large number of emissions of greenhouse gases caused by global warming has caused widespread concern around the world, for the world to improve the situation of global warming have attached great importance to and actively take measures to China. Due to the rapid economic development, and is known as the "world factory", some Western countries will have to spearhead the Chinese. Requirements Chinese bear a lot of carbon emission reduction responsibility. With the rapid growth of China's import and export trade, in 2013 China has become the world's largest trade in goods. CO2 emissions in China ranks first in the world, but there are nearly 1/3 is due to export production. So the research of CO2 emission effect of import and export trade to reduce CO2 in China is of great significance to emissions.
According to the existing literature, this paper found that the domestic research on the relationship of carbon emissions in the most concentrated trade and estimated by using the linear model containing the total import and export trade or export from the perspective of foreign trade impact on the emission of CO2, but there is little empirical research on the effect of carbon dioxide emissions from the non linear perspective of import and export trade. With the change of technology progress and system, between the sample data are highly heterogeneous, the linear model is very difficult to meet this requirement, so this paper uses the panel smooth on this issue transfer model.
This paper first analyzes the status quo of China's CO2 emissions and import and export trade, separately from the total situation, current situation analysis and the international comparison on the three aspects of industry CO2 emissions in China; the analysis of import and export trade present situation from two aspects of the overall size and trade structure; and from the angle of statistics shows that the emission of CO2 I Chinese and foreign trade has the same trend. Secondly, from the angle of region is divided into eastern, central and western, using the linear model were analyzed by linear effects of carbon dioxide emissions in each region import and export trade, and its economic significance were analyzed. The transfer model again on China's overall building panel smooth, with trade the scale and structure of trade transfer variables, analysis of carbon dioxide emission nonlinear effects of China's import trade and export trade, and analyzes the estimation results of economic significance.
The main conclusions of this paper are: the current situation of China's CO2 emissions is large amount, but lower per capita emissions, CO2 emissions intensity, significantly higher than the average level of the world, Eastern CO2 emissions; import and export trade situation is steady growth of foreign trade volume, trade structure and trade methods in recent years, although slightly improved but, not to the processing trade as the leading trade mode change.
In different regions, import and export trade has the different influence on CO2 emission. The eastern and central export trade development will lead to increased emissions of CO2 in our country, the development of import trade helps to reduce the emission of CO2 in China, and the western area of the import and export of CO2 emissions were not significantly affected.
The emission of CO2 nonlinear effect of import and export trade significantly, with the scale of trade for the transfer variable, exports will lead to increased domestic emissions of CO2, but with the expansion of the scale of export trade, the proportion of the influence on CO2 emission decreased; import trade can help reduce CO2 emissions in China, with the expansion of trade scale, CO2 emission reduction effect import trade increased gradually. With the trade structure for the transfer variable, influence trade structure unreasonable make the emission of CO2 nonlinear effects of export trade was significantly larger than the linear effect, so the adjustment of trade structure to reduce the emission of CO2 in China has an important role; linear and nonlinear effects of import trade show imports to reduce CO2 emissions in China.
According to the estimated results, we put forward the following policy recommendations: optimizing industrial structure, promoting the development of low carbon trade industry, promoting technological progress, improving energy efficiency and developing new energy, and implementing different trade policies for different regions.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F752.6;F224

【参考文献】